钢材周报：库存延续去化，基本面仍有韧性-20251222

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong performance. Under the influence of macro - news speculation, the low - price situation improved slightly, but the actual demand was poor and the trading volume was average. Currently, steel mills are reducing production and the inventory pressure is not high, so they have a strong willingness to raise prices. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand is not significant, but due to lack of confidence, the price increase is under pressure [1]. - In the short term, with the fermentation of macro - sentiment and the rhythmic support of low - inventory destocking, the market price may fluctuate and tend to be strong. However, there are still important risk factors among the variables derived from time. It is recommended to focus on changes in market sentiment and the trend of raw fuels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The steel market was strong this week. Macro - news speculation improved the low - price situation, but actual demand was poor and trading was average. Steel mills' production cuts and low inventory pressure led to a strong willingness to raise prices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are small, but price increases are pressured by lack of confidence [1]. - In the short term, the market price may fluctuate and strengthen due to macro - sentiment and low - inventory destocking support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and raw fuel trends [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons (-1.16%). - Rebar steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,600 tons (-0.89%). - Rebar social inventory was 3.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 257,000 tons (-7.59%). - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 0.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons (-0.73%). - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons (-1.84%) [3]. Futures Market Review The report provides multiple figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 01 - 05 spread, hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [6][8]. Spot Market Review The report includes figures on the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. Fundamental Data The report presents figures on 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [15][20][23][26].