Soochow Securities·2025-12-22 09:05Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The environmental protection industry is expected to benefit from tightening nickel quotas in Indonesia and increasing demand for air pollution control, particularly for companies like Longjing Environmental [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for achieving carbon neutrality and improving air quality, indicating a shift from end-of-pipe treatment to structural reduction [10][11] - The report highlights the growth potential in the waste management sector, particularly in overseas markets, and the expected acceleration in revenue recognition for companies like Weiming Environmental [19][21] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is projected to experience a value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals [21] - The report notes a significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a 61.32% year-on-year growth in the first ten months of 2025 [27] - The average price of biodiesel has decreased, leading to a decline in profit margins [39] Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Longjing Environmental, Weiming Environmental, and others that are positioned to benefit from stricter air quality standards and increased demand for environmental services [1][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cash flow and market positioning in the water services sector, such as Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment [22] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the tightening of nickel quotas in Indonesia could support nickel prices, benefiting companies involved in nickel production and processing [18] - The report also discusses the expected growth in the waste-to-energy sector in Indonesia, with significant investments planned for waste incineration plants [19] Financial Performance - Longjing Environmental reported a 1.1% year-on-year increase in new environmental equipment contracts, with a total of 76.26 billion yuan in new contracts for the first three quarters of 2025 [13] - The report projects that the free cash flow for the water services sector will improve significantly, enhancing dividend potential and PE valuation [22]