棉系周报：销售情况维持，棉价震荡偏强-20251222

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Sales Remain Stable, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Uptrend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to continue trading within a range due to limited fundamental contradictions. The domestic cotton market is expected to see cotton prices continue to fluctuate with an upward bias due to better - than - normal new cotton sales in the short term and stable downstream demand [8][29] Summary by Directory Part I: International and Domestic Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the US cotton is expected to continue trading within a range. As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.225 million tons, accounting for 72.5% of the annual US cotton production forecast, 10% slower than the same period last year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are rising. The sales volume of US upland cotton decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume increased slightly [8] - Brazil: As of December 13, the cotton planting in the 2025/26 season was 10.1% complete, 4.8 percentage points higher than the previous period but 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The planting progress in the early stage was slower due to the late harvest of soybeans in some areas [8] - India: The CAI's latest report shows that compared with the previous month, the production, import, and export of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season have been adjusted, and the domestic demand has been reduced, resulting in a 230,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8] - Global: According to the latest USDA forecast in December, the global cotton production decreased by 64,000 tons to 26.08 million tons, consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending stocks remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - Supply Side: As of December 17, 2025, the cumulative official inspection of cotton was 5.587795 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.66%. The new cotton picking is basically over, and the processing has entered the final stage. Cotton companies are more willing to build inventories, and the sentiment of holding back sales has increased [29] - Demand Side: As of December 4, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.736 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of December 18, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.2%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week. Spinning mills are cautious about replenishing stocks, and the raw material inventory days are slowly decreasing [29] Option Trading Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7094, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly trade within a range in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal and External Price Difference: The document shows the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 month price difference trend, which can help understand the price relationship between domestic and international cotton and the price difference between different contract months [50][51] - Mid - end Situation: It presents the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric, reflecting the production and inventory status of the mid - end of the cotton industry chain [54] - Cotton Inventory: It shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill industrial inventory, and reserve inventory, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation of the cotton market [56] - Spot - Futures Basis: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the average basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton, and the basis of C32S cotton yarn spot - Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract, which is important for analyzing the relationship between spot and futures prices [59]