鸡蛋日报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short - term will be relatively gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3077, JD05 at 3496, and JD09 at 3974, all unchanged from the previous day. The spreads between different months (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) also remained unchanged [2]. - Price ratios: Ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day, while the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. Egg prices in most regions were stable, with some local fluctuations [2][4]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2348 yuan, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the average price of soybean meal was 3118 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.58 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was - 0.37 yuan/feather, down 2.87 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg production and sales: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas as of December 18 was 7023 tons, remaining at a low level over the years [5]. - Chicken inventory and production: The number of culled chickens in the main production areas as of December 18 was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 486 days, remaining unchanged [5]. - Profit situation: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, showing a slight recovery; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, down 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory situation: As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, showing a slight decrease, while the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, showing a slight increase [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that near - month contracts will fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. One can consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].