铜镍增仓上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Shanghai Copper: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, with the main contract price breaking through the 94,000 RMB mark, and LME copper approaching the $12,000 mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite and liquidity have recovered. Industrially, downstream buyers are hesitant. China's copper smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $12,000 mark for LME copper [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and on Monday, it fluctuated within a narrow range. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite rebounded, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. Industrially, the basis and calendar spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. In the short term, attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the 22,400 RMB mark [7]. - Shanghai Nickel: On Friday night, Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a high level, with the open interest continuously rising. On Monday, Shanghai nickel significantly increased in volume and price, and the main contract price rose at the end of the session, breaking through the 120,000 RMB mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, non - ferrous metals generally rose, and nickel showed signs of a rebound from oversold conditions. Industrially, the spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the nickel price. In the short term, Shanghai nickel has changed from a short - covering rebound to a long - adding rebound, breaking through the high in early December, with strong upward momentum. In case of a short - term correction, attention can be paid to the support at the 120,000 RMB mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: China's smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb, compared with $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb in 2025. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the second batch of enterprises meeting the standards for waste copper and aluminum processing and utilization, with 26 enterprises on the list. The total number of enterprises meeting the standards in two batches is 53, covering 12 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. The total production capacity of these enterprises is about 8 million tons, including 500,000 tons for waste copper processing and distribution, 4 million tons for waste aluminum processing and distribution, and 3.5 million tons for direct recycling of recycled copper [10]. - Aluminum: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 9.76% and a year - on - year increase of 22.50%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 187 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 29.61%. In November 2025, China imported 10.707 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 19.00% and a year - on - year increase of 34.08%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 138 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 38.25% [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum bar inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - Nickel: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel calendar spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]