Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-22 09:52Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the US corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but the reduction of the US corn carry - over inventory forecast by USDA supports the price. In the domestic market, the increased acquisition by reserve warehouses in the Northeast provides support, yet high prices limit purchasing enthusiasm, and the price is adjusting slightly. The corn futures price has fallen from its high recently, so short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure increases due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates. However, holiday备货 and the shift of some downstream customers from expensive tapioca starch may boost demand. Affected by the decline in corn, the starch price has also dropped, and short - term observation is advised [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2497 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 1 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The futures closing price of CBOT corn is 443.25 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents [2]. - Futures positions (active contract): 983336 hands for yellow corn, down 21181 hands; 61003 hands for corn starch, down 18128 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 91573 hands for corn and - 32111 hands for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 52466 hands for yellow corn, down 184 hands; 2500 hands for corn starch, unchanged. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 330 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Outer Market - CBOT: The total corn positions are 1473739 contracts, up 13996 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of corn are 67530 contracts, down 19566 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2347.65 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2057.76 yuan/ton, up 0.02 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 68 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 155.65 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan [2]. - The price difference between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 712 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 204 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: 425.53 million hectares in the US, 53 million hectares in Brazil, 295 million hectares in China, and 32 million hectares in Ukraine. Forecasted yields: 131 million tons in the US, 22.6 million tons in Brazil, 44.3 million tons in China, 7.5 million tons in Argentina, and 32 million tons in Ukraine [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories: 13.8 million tons in southern ports, 29 million tons in northern ports. The inventory of deep - processed corn is 294 million tons, up 18.6 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 107.4 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [2]. - Import volume of corn is 30 million tons; export volume of corn starch is 19.17 million tons, up 6.39 million tons. The monthly output of feed is 20.9 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 29.48 days, down 0.05 days. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; in Hebei is 71 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processed corn consumption is 141.29 million tons, down 0.38 million tons. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 62.31%, down 3%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 65.22%, down 0.53% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.45%, down 0.4%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.5%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 7.94%, up 0.26%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 7.95%, up 0.27% [2]. Industry News - Consultancy Safras & Mercado forecasts Brazil's 2025/26 corn output at 142.875 million tons, lower than the previous forecast but higher than 2024/25. The US Department of Agriculture will not issue more aid beyond the $12 billion plan, and the US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure [2].