AI泡沫质疑声中的韧性市场

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a resilient market amidst skepticism surrounding the AI bubble, suggesting that the market is driven by a combination of a rate-cutting cycle, technological prosperity, and a weakening dollar [2][50][54] - It highlights the strong performance of certain markets, particularly the Korean stock market, which surged by 21.7% in the fourth quarter due to robust semiconductor demand and a favorable AI supply chain [54] - The report anticipates a structural market trend where equities outperform bonds, technology outperforms defensive sectors, precious metals outperform energy, and emerging markets outperform developed markets [50][54] Asset Allocation - The report suggests a focus on high-yield bonds, emerging market stocks, and technology sectors as key investment opportunities in the current economic climate [57][58] - It notes that the U.S. stock market is expected to rebound, driven by improved earnings expectations and potential tax policy changes in January 2026 [77][78] - The report identifies five key long-term investment directions for Hong Kong stocks, including technology, healthcare, resource commodities, and consumer sectors [96][97] Economic Outlook - The report projects that the macroeconomic environment in China will remain stable in 2026, with expectations of a recovery in consumer and real estate sectors [91] - It highlights that the performance of the Hong Kong stock market is likely to benefit from both internal and external economic stimuli, including fiscal and monetary easing policies [96][94] - The report indicates that the AI sector remains robust, with expectations that the narrative around AI will continue to drive market interest and investment [57][71]