原油周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and the continued delay of the restart of the Caspian Alliance Pipeline No. 3 SPM suggest a temporary wait - and - see approach [4] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increase in Q1 next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the drawdown of US crude oil inventories was slightly better than expected, but the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories increased. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and there are positive progress in the peace talks. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions continues to decline, and the crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the US continue to fall. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, which may lead to concerns about export disruptions [4] - After Zelensky's compromise on the "joining the treaty" issue, crude oil prices hit a new low in the second half of the year. However, the US blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and the expected full - storage of Venezuelan oil facilities led to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [9] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's October crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 12 decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.843 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 2.49 million barrels month - on - month to 412.1 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, with 21 consecutive weeks of increase [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cut - The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for cuts, some believing it's a technical factor, and some worried about inflation and preferring to keep rates stable until next spring [18] Performance of Refined Oil in Europe and the US - The crack spreads of gasoline in the US and Europe decreased by $1.0 per barrel and $1.5 per barrel respectively; the crack spreads of diesel in the US and Europe decreased by $0.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.521 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 7.36% week - on - week to 9.078 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.647 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13%. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 8.95% week - on - week to 3.786 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.684 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 2.18%. The significant decline in diesel demand led to a 2.41% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [27] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of December 17, EIA data showed that as of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, slightly better than the expected decrease of 1.066 million barrels, and 4.47% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.062 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 1.712 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.178 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 742,000 barrels [34] Geopolitical Risks - The Ukrainian National Security Service attacked a Russian oil - transporting tanker in the Mediterranean. The Russian army advanced in various directions. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks made constructive progress. Israeli officials plan to report a possible new strike on Iran to Trump. The US intercepted a tanker near Venezuela [39]