Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Currently, under the macro - environment, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating, and the uncertainty of the new Fed chairperson makes the market doubt the degree of monetary policy easing. The long - term agreement processing fee was set at 0 last Friday, which confirms the tight supply expectation of copper mines. There is an expectation that domestic smelters will cut production by 10% next year, so the tight supply is a long - term fundamental logic. In the short term, the consumer side is restricted by high - priced copper and has slowed down. The subsequent focus should be on the downstream's ability to accept high prices, and the copper price remains strong in the medium - to - long term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Macro aspect: In November, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, significantly lower than market expectations. Due to data missing caused by the government shutdown in October, the market generally believes the data has low reference value. The non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [3]. - Supply aspect: On December 19, Chinese copper smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at $0/ton and $0.00/lb, a historical "zeroing" compared to $21.25/ton and $0.02125/lb in 2025. In November, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. It is expected that December's production will increase by 65,700 tons (5.96% month - on - month) and 6.69% year - on - year [3]. - Demand aspect: According to SMM data, the expected December copper tube enterprise operating rate is 67.09%. The lower - than - expected operating rate is mainly due to the decline in air - conditioner production scheduling and high copper prices suppressing downstream raw material procurement. In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 66.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03 percentage points, 0.93 percentage points higher than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.03 percentage points. After entering December, it is expected that downstream enterprises will gradually have holidays and stop work, and the operating rate will further decline. The copper foil market has maintained high - speed growth after December, but in 2026, with the new policy of halving the purchase tax for new - energy vehicles, the terminal demand will be under pressure and the growth rate may slow down [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. The weekly high was 94,360 yuan/ton, the low was 90,750 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 3.84%, and the interval decline was 0.96% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of December 19, the average spot premium in East China was - 150 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 25 yuan/ton. At the year - end settlement period, holders of goods intended to sell at low prices, resulting in a discount market for copper prices [10]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of December 19, LME copper rose 0.36% during the week, closing at $11,837/ton [15]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply As of December 19, customs data showed that the copper concentrate port inventory was 680,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. It is expected that the import volume in December 2025 will be 2.6 million physical tons, and the annual import volume will be 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% with an expected increment of 2.094 million physical tons [21]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In October 2025, the import volume of scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) was about 196,607 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, with Japan being the largest importing country. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. Near the year - end, the shortage of bills affects the operating conditions of recycled copper enterprises, and it is expected to improve after New Year's Day. Currently, the market supply of scrap copper is tight, and under the influence of large copper price fluctuations and Document 770, the operating load of scrap - copper rod production is mainly low [26]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of December 19, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the RC fee was - $0.0458/lb, with the TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19, Chinese copper smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at $0/ton and $0.00/lb, a historical "zeroing" compared to 2025 [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply From January to October 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 122,000 tons, a reduction compared to 261,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. In November, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. It is expected that December's production will increase by 65,700 tons (5.96% month - on - month) and 6.69% year - on - year. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of October 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1321,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.25% [38]. 3.10 Copper Products In November, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was 63.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.86 percentage points. It is expected that the December operating rate will be 67.09%. The lower - than - expected operating rate is mainly due to the decline in air - conditioner production scheduling and high copper prices suppressing downstream raw material procurement. In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 66.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03 percentage points, 0.93 percentage points higher than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.03 percentage points. After entering December, it is expected that downstream enterprises will gradually have holidays and stop work, and the operating rate will further decline. The copper foil market has maintained high - speed growth after December, but in 2026, with the new policy of halving the purchase tax for new - energy vehicles, the terminal demand will be under pressure and the growth rate may slow down [43]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power - generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the national power - generation equipment had an average cumulative utilization of 2,619 hours, a decrease of 260 hours compared to the same period of the previous year [47]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data From January to November, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 7.513 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%; among them, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2% [53]. 3.13 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data From November 1 to 30, 2025, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.72 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. As of November this year, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of new - energy vehicles had reached 13.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Starting from January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax will be halved from exemption, which may lead to pre - purchase demand for new - energy vehicles [59]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges As of December 19, LME copper inventory decreased by 5,500 tons to 160,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.1%. COMEX copper inventory was 462,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% and a year - on - year increase of 394.48%. The continuous inventory build - up in the US has led to a shortage of copper inventory resources in other regions. Although the LME inventory is lower year - on - year, it is still at a relatively medium level in recent years. On December 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 109,100 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased again. The exported goods from smelters continued to arrive and be stored in the warehouse during the week, and the inventory rebounded. As of December 19, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 45,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40.46%; the cathode copper inventory was 95,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.18%, both showing an inventory build - up trend [64][69].
沪铜周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251222
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-22 10:21