沥青周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251222

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is affected by the开工 rate decline and potential production transfer, and the demand shows differences between the north and the south. There are also concerns about the supply of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil, which may impact domestic asphalt production [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply Side: Last week, the asphalt开工 rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. In December, the domestic asphalt planned production is 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. Some Shandong refineries plan to switch to producing residue oil this week [3]. - Demand Side: As of the week ending December 19th, most downstream asphalt industries'开工 rates declined. Road asphalt开工 rate dropped 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather. From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year - on - year. From January to November, the fixed - asset investment in road transport decreased 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased 1.1% year - on - year. Northern road construction is ending, with subsequent rigid demand slowing down, but winter - storage demand is emerging. Southern demand is average, and southern refineries have cut prices [3][29]. - Inventory: As of the week ending December 19th, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2% week - on - week, near the multi - year low [34]. - Price and Basis: The asphalt/原油 ratio rose to 6.82. The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [11][14]. - Shipping Volume: As of the week ending December 19th, due to intermittent shutdowns of major refineries in East China and high prices, the national shipping volume decreased 3.52% week - on - week to 244,500 tons, at a neutral level [24].