PVC周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251222

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term due to factors such as decreased supply - side开工率, poor downstream demand, high inventory, and the real - estate market still in adjustment [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36% week - on - week, continuing to decline and remaining at a moderately high level compared to recent years. The downstream开工率 of PVC decreased by 3.5 percentage points week - on - week, and downstream product orders are poor [3][18]. - In terms of exports, PVC increased export orders slightly last week by sacrificing price, but the price in the Indian market is low and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the January quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan [3]. - Social inventory decreased slightly last week but remains high, with significant inventory pressure. December is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. After the increase in spot prices, market transactions are light [3][25]. - From January to November 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas have large year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further decreased. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years, and the real - estate market needs time to improve [3][24]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have recently been put into operation. Due to anti - involution sentiment, the rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosts market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali decreases, and the expected开工率 of some production enterprises declines, but the current production decline is limited, and futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [3]. PVC Basis - The current 05 basis is - 215 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [12]. Real - Estate Data - From January to November 2025, national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with residential sales area down 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, with residential sales volume down 11.2% [24]. - From January to November 2025, the new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, with residential new construction area down 19.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, with residential completion area down 20.1% [24]. - As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [24]. PVC Inventory - As of the week of December 18, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. Although social inventory decreased slightly, it remains high [25].