瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market is expected to see an accelerated growth in commercial inventory as the national cotton inspection volume has exceeded 5.5 million tons, and the November cotton import volume increased slightly month - on - month. The import port inventory is expected to maintain an upward trend. On the demand side, after the peak - season procurement of downstream spinning mills ended, the off - season characteristics of spinning mills are emerging, and the market shipment speed is slow. Therefore, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 14,070, up 55; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20,110, up 60 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 138,546, down 1,226; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 1,260, down 345 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 785,062, up 23,519; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 23,294, up 473 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 4,075, up 205; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 9, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,154; China Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,990, up 60 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,769, up 9; arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,133, down 5 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding duty (daily, yuan/ton): 13,827, down 3; arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,306, up 78 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Data presented in the futures market section above also reflects the spot - related price indices [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,836, up 51; industrial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1,318, up 9; commercial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days: yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days: grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth: output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn: output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 200.1, down 7.3 - Apparel and clothing accessories: export value: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; textile yarns, fabrics and products: export value: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 9.14, down 0.5; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 9.14, down 0.5 - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 5.26, down 0.16; cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 6.29, down 0.24 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is increasing. As of December 19, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.0473 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 255,000 tons (a 5.32% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.351 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 189,600 tons (a 4.56% increase), and that in inland areas was 304,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,800 tons (a 26.52% increase) - According to the USDA report, in the week ending November 27, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 135,900 bales, a decrease of 8% from the previous week and 23% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 122,100 bales, a 1% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The US cotton export contract volume decreased and the shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month [2]