瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251222

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - New partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. With no planned shutdowns this week and 2 - 4 shutdown plants possibly resuming production, output is expected to increase slightly considering short - term faults [3]. - Agriculture is in a short - term off - season for rigid demand, with recent reserve demand for phased replenishment, and there is still a reserve demand expectation in the Northeast [3]. - Environmental warnings in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places caused a slight decline in compound fertilizer operation, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to decline steadily or slightly [3]. - Urea factories' inventory continued to decline last week. Short - term receipt of orders by urea factories improved, and there may be further destocking. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1698 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 169,174 lots, up 5,318 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 15,240 [3]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 10,881 sheets, down 95 sheets [3]. 现货市场 (Spot Market) - In the spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports increased by 2.5 dollars/ton [3]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 13 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - Port inventory was 13.8 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons week - on - week [3]. - The urea enterprise operating rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points; the daily urea output was 195,100 tons, down 2,800 tons [3]. - Urea exports were 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly output of urea was 6.00033 billion tons, up 129,060 tons [3]. 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 39.37%, down 1.25 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 58.55%, down 3.31 percentage points [3]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 140 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 36 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [3]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 30,500 tons, down 1,700 tons [3]. Industry News - As of December 17, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. The destocking was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast and Northwest China [3]. - As of December 18, China's urea port sample inventory was 13.8 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week, a week - on - week increase of 12.20%. The port collection was in progress smoothly, and some ports received goods successively [3]. 提示关注 (Points to Note) - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output and operating rate on Thursday [3]