苹果产业日报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remains sluggish, with slow shipment and increased willingness of fruit growers to sell at market prices. The shipment in Gansu production area is okay, especially the inventory of high - cost - effective Fuji apples is actively traded. The trading atmosphere of late - Fuji apples remains light, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase fruit growers' goods has declined. Good - quality apple prices remain firm, while the prices of general and lower - quality apples have loosened. As of December 18, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the storage - capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased. The prices of fruit growers' goods in Shaanxi's secondary production areas slightly declined, and the sales area market shipment is still poor. The increasing supply of tangerines and other citrus fruits impacts apple sales. With the current weak demand for double - festival stocking, there is a possibility of a continued short - term price decline. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9149 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 888 compared to the previous period; the main - contract position volume is 6025 hands, and the net long - order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 148,778 hands, with a decrease of 1940 compared to the previous period. [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, with no change compared to the previous period. The price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, also with no change. [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with an increase of 168.34 compared to the previous period, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.14 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.01. The national apple cold - storage total inventory is 752.98 million tons, with a decrease of 5.57 million tons. The storage - capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.57, and that in Shaanxi is 0.53. The monthly export quantity of apples is 80,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreased by 503,616 US dollars, and the year - on - year monthly export amount of apples decreased by 14.3%. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, with no change. [2] Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.06; the price of bananas is 6.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.27; the price of watermelons is 5.64 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.17. The early - morning average daily vehicle arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.2 vehicles, with an increase of 2.6; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.6 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 27.6 vehicles, with an increase of 3.8. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.02%, and that of at - the - money put options is 24.01%, both with an increase of 0.33 compared to the previous period. [2]