技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价的影响？

Group 1: Key Findings on Gold Price Dynamics - The linear relationship between gold ETF demand and gold price indicates that for every 1 ton increase in investment demand, the gold price rises by $0.46/oz[1] - From 2003 to 2022, the gold ETF size explained 94.1% of gold price fluctuations, with a slope of 14.29, meaning a 1 million oz increase in gold ETF size leads to a $14.29/oz increase in gold price[1] - Since December 2022, the explanatory power of gold ETF size on gold price has dropped to 9.19%, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics due to increased central bank gold purchases[1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases Impact - Central bank gold purchases accounted for 92.78% of the changes in the residuals between actual and implied gold ETF demand from Q3 2022 to Q3 2025[1] - As of Q3 2025, the gold ETF size was 96.65 million oz, while the implied gold ETF demand was 235.91 million oz, resulting in a residual of 139.27 million oz, closely matching the central banks' net purchases of 116.15 million oz during the same period[1] - A simplified binary model for gold price suggests it is now primarily driven by central bank demand, influenced by dollar credit, rather than solely by ETF demand[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases is expected to provide strong support for a rising gold price amid geopolitical tensions and economic isolationism[1] - Potential risks include a slowdown in central bank purchases, liquidity risks from a global financial crisis, and the impact of technological advancements in the U.S. that could challenge the long-term upward trend of gold prices[1]