东兴证券晨报-20251222

Core Insights - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy as a catalyst for coal price recovery, with expectations for stable price increases in 2026. The lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 610 RMB/ton in June 2025, while it rose to 813 RMB/ton by December 1, 2025, indicating a recovery trend [7][8] - The coal industry is expected to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" due to regulatory measures and market mechanisms, which will likely lead to a decrease in domestic coal production in 2026 [8][12] - The demand for thermal power is projected to remain resilient, supported by AI computing power driving new electricity demand, with a forecasted increase in coal consumption due to sustained thermal coal demand [9][10] Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the coal industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and capacity checks, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity and a tightening of imports [8][12] - The report notes that the coal price index fluctuated between 1100 and 1570 RMB/ton in 2025, with a significant increase in prices following the implementation of long-term contracts [7][8] - The report anticipates that the coal industry will see a shift towards high-quality development, with a focus on stable dividends and improved return on equity (ROE) for listed companies [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, cost advantages, and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [12] - It also recommends companies with growth potential based on their production capacity and profitability, including Guanghui Energy and Huayang Co [12]