交通运输行业周报（2025年12月15日-2025年12月21日）：11月快递价格继续上涨，四川成渝拟收购荆宜高速-20251222

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up prices and releasing profit elasticity for companies. This creates a favorable competitive environment for the e-commerce express delivery sector in the medium to long term. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [16][17] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is positive due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The market for oil transportation is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [17] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore mine by the end of 2025. This is expected to catalyze global demand for bulk commodities [17] - The aviation sector is expected to see Q3 performance as a signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and a tightening supply situation [17] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In November 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The total revenue was 137.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. The growth rates of major companies varied, with YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant increases in business volume [4][31] - The "de-involution" trend in the express delivery industry has led to improved pricing, strengthening profit recovery expectations for the fourth quarter [4][16] Shipping and Ports - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 1.13% to 1399 points, while the BCTI index for refined oil transportation rose by 1.0% to 755 points. The BDI index for bulk shipping decreased by 11.9% to 2147 points [12][47] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and the green transition in shipbuilding, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipbuilding and China State Shipbuilding [17] Aviation - In November 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 60 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and cargo and mail transport reached 930,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 85.57%, indicating a stable demand environment [64] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics sector is experiencing a positive transformation, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from upgrades in logistics parks and improved profitability [17] - The chemical logistics market is also showing potential for growth, with significant opportunities for leading companies like Milky Way and Xingtong [17] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports for the week of December 8-14, 2025, was 262.48 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.16%, while container throughput was 6.59 million TEU, also down by 0.89% [79]