2026年度中国期货市场投资报告：铜：需求结构重塑，沪铜步入新纪元

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global copper market will face a complex situation with the balance between "swinging Fed monetary policy" and "Chinese demand support." The copper price will be affected by multiple factors such as overseas liquidity expectations, trade policy fluctuations, and domestic structural policy support. The long - term demand for copper is underpinned by the global green transition [22][70]. - The supply side is in a tight - balance state. The growth of global copper mine production is limited, and the copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) remains deeply negative. The global refined copper production growth rate may turn negative, marking a mandatory adjustment in the capacity expansion cycle [24][47]. - The demand side shows structural differentiation. Traditional sectors like real estate and home appliances will continue to drag down demand, while emerging sectors such as new - energy vehicles, AI computing power infrastructure will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. The overall copper demand growth rate will slow down, but the quality and structural characteristics of demand will be more prominent [52][71]. - In 2026, the copper price is expected to remain at a high level, with increased volatility. The upside potential depends on the supply recovery progress and the growth intensity of emerging demand [2][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Futures Market Review - The copper market in 2025 experienced a historical - level market. The overall global copper price showed a wide - range volatile trend due to the implementation of US tariffs and the continuous decline of copper concentrate processing fees [5]. - First stage (January - March): Policy expectations increased, and the price rose moderately. The pre - Spring Festival downstream inventory - building demand supported the price, and the launch of the US "232 Clause" investigation on imported copper affected the global trade flow, causing the price of the Shanghai copper main contract to gradually rise [6]. - Second stage (April - June): The impact of tariffs and the tight supply - demand situation led to a deep V - shaped rebound in the price. The implementation of US tariffs and China's counter - measures increased market uncertainty, causing the copper price to plunge. Subsequently, the easing of Sino - US trade relations and supply - side disturbances supported the price to rebound [7]. - Third stage (July - September): The price fluctuated in a high - level range, with policies and events intertwined. Domestic policies provided support for industrial metal demand, but the US tariff increase on some copper products caused the price to fall. Later, the supply - tightening expectation due to mine accidents drove the price to rise again [8]. - Fourth stage (October - December): The macro - environment became more favorable, and the supply anxiety intensified, leading to a strong breakthrough in the price. The reduction of Sino - US tariff risks, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and the release of domestic policies boosted market risk appetite. The planned reduction of copper production capacity in 2026 and the increase in LME copper cancellation warrants triggered concerns about supply shortages, pushing the copper price to a new high [9][10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Foreign Macro - In 2025, the US dollar index declined from a high level and fluctuated below the 100 mark. The Fed cut interest rates three times during the year, but the process was full of differences. The December interest - rate cut was regarded as "hawkish." In 2026, the Fed's decision - making will be more complex, with only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts expected, and the rhythm will be slow and prone to reversal [12][13]. - The US tariff policy on copper has caused significant fluctuations in the price difference between COMEX and LME copper. Although the direct impact of the tariff policy on the copper market has weakened in the fourth quarter of 2025, the potential policy risk may still affect the market in the future [16]. 3.2.2 Domestic Macro - In 2025, China's economy maintained stable growth, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters. The economic structure was continuously optimized, and the new and old kinetic energy transformation was in an orderly manner. The "15th Five - Year Plan" provides a solid demand - side expectation and structural upward driving force for the copper price [19][20]. - In 2026, as the starting year of the "15th Five - Year Plan," China is expected to implement expansionary fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to further consolidate the economic recovery, which will continue to support the copper price [20]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 Copper Mine Supply - In 2025, the global copper mine supply entered a low - growth stage. The actual growth rate of copper concentrate production in 2025 may be only 1%. In 2026, the tight - balance pattern of "insufficient increment and frequent disturbances" is expected to continue [24]. - Newly -投产 projects have limited incremental contributions, and their production - climbing progress and initial operation stability need to be observed. At the same time, geopolitical and operational risks pose continuous threats to copper mine production, and the nominal new production of global copper mines in 2026 is expected to be only 53.3 million tons [26][28]. 3.3.2 Smelting End - In 2025, the global copper smelting industry faced the contradiction of "ore shortage" and "capacity expansion." The copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) remained deeply negative, and the traditional profit model based on processing fees was no longer sustainable. The industry entered a "negative - profit" production state [32]. - In 2026, the difficulties in the smelting industry are difficult to be substantially alleviated. The possibility of passive production cuts by domestic smelting enterprises is expected to increase significantly [35]. 3.3.3 Refined Copper - In 2025, the global refined copper output still increased due to the support of by - product benefits and the launch of new production capacity. However, in 2026, under the dual drive of policy intervention and market losses, passive production cuts will become the main theme of the industry, and the growth of global smelting capacity will slow down significantly. It is expected that the refined copper output in 2026 will fall below 13 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 2.5% [37][47]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In October 2025, China's imports of unforged refined copper cathodes and cathode profiles decreased, while exports increased significantly. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the transfer of some African and South American copper sources to the US and the deterioration of import parity. The increase in exports was due to the opening of the export window caused by the increase in copper prices and the weak demand of downstream processing enterprises [48][49]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis 3.4.1 Traditional Consumption Areas - In 2025, the growth rate of power grid investment was 7.2% from January to October, and it is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 3 - 3.5% in 2026. The growth rate of home appliance consumption may decline significantly in 2026 due to the weakening of policy incentives and the high cost of raw materials [54][57]. - The real estate market continued to decline in 2025, and it is expected that the copper demand in the construction field will still face negative growth in 2026, dragging down the overall copper consumption [59]. 3.4.2 Emerging Areas - In the new - energy field, although the growth rate of photovoltaic and wind power installations may slow down in 2026, the new - energy vehicle market is still a stable driving force for copper demand growth. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles reached 53.2% in 2025, and it is expected to continue to increase in 2026 [60][61]. - The AI computing power infrastructure is emerging as a new growth point for copper demand. It is estimated that the annual copper demand of newly - built data centers will reach an average of about 400,000 tons in the future, and may reach a peak of 572,000 tons around 2028 [63]. 3.4.3 Inventory End - Since February 2025, the copper inventory of the three major exchanges has shown a differentiated trend, with the LME copper inventory reaching a historical low. In 2026, the global copper inventory is expected to enter a new stage of regional tight - balance normalization, and the inventory accumulation speed will slow down [65]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In 2026, the global macro - environment will seek a new balance between "swinging Fed monetary policy" and "Chinese demand support." The supply side will remain tight, and the demand side will show structural differentiation. The copper price is expected to remain at a high level, and its upward potential depends on the supply recovery progress, domestic demand - stimulation policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [70][71].