穿越生柴、气候、贸易三重扰动，聚焦结构性机遇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean supply and demand remain in a loose pattern, but there are structural adjustments in different countries. The US soybean supply faces a structural contraction, Brazil's supply is abundant, and Argentina's supply is affected by La Nina [2][67]. - The global rapeseed output will increase in 2025/26. The price of rapeseed in 2026 will show wide - range fluctuations and be event - driven, highly dependent on China - Canada trade policies [2][68]. - The global palm oil supply is in a tight pattern in 2025/26, but it is expected to grow in 2026. The palm oil price in 2026 may be supported by biodiesel, with potential structural opportunities in the first quarter [2][69][70]. 3. Summary of Each Section Part 1: Market Review - Wide - Range Fluctuations of Oils and Fats Throughout the Year - Rapeseed prices in 2025 showed a trend of rising, then falling from a high level, and finally stabilizing and rebounding. The price was affected by trade policies and market expectations of new - season harvest [4]. - The price center of soybean No. 2 futures moved up in 2025. It was affected by trade risks, weather conditions, and biodiesel policies at different stages [6]. - In 2024, the prices of the three major oils and fats went through four stages, showing different trends due to factors such as inventory, supply, demand, and policies [6][7]. Part 2: Global Soybean Supply and Demand Remain in a Loose Pattern - International Supply: The global soybean output in 2025/26 is 422 million tons, a decrease of 1.17% year - on - year. The inventory consumption ratio remains above 20%, indicating a loose supply pattern [10]. - US Supply: The US soybean planting area decreased by 7.0% in 2025/26. The output is expected to be 115 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year - on - year. Domestic consumption increased, while exports decreased [12][13]. - Brazilian Supply: Brazil's soybean output in 2025/26 may reach a record high of 175 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year - on - year. However, in the long run, the era of large - scale expansion of planting area may end [15][16][17]. - Argentine Supply: Argentina's soybean output in 2025/26 is 48.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% year - on - year. La Nina may have a negative impact on its output [21][22]. Part 3: Abundant Rapeseed Supply - Global Output Increase: The global rapeseed output in 2025/26 is 92.273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. The output in the EU, Canada, Australia, and Russia all increased [25]. - Uncertainty in China's Imports: China's rapeseed imports in 2025 remained at a high level. The core driver of the import pattern in 2026 is the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canada. Different policy scenarios will lead to different import patterns [31][36][37]. Part 4: Both Production and Demand in the Vegetable Oil Market Increase - Global Situation: In 2025/26, the global vegetable oil production and consumption both increased. The growth rate of demand exceeded that of supply, and the inventory and inventory consumption ratio continued to decline [40]. - Palm Oil Supply Growth: The global palm oil supply is expected to grow in 2026. Indonesia's output may increase by 3% - 4% in 2026, and Malaysia's output is also expected to rise due to the improvement of labor supply [42][46][47]. - Increased Industrial Demand: The industrial demand for global oils and fats increased significantly. The US biodiesel is a major growth point for oil demand but faces policy uncertainty. Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy is well - implemented and may be upgraded to B50 in 2026 [50][51][56]. - Domestic Demand Focus: China's three major oils and fats are expected to enter the de - stocking stage, with rapeseed oil having the fastest de - stocking speed [61]. Part 5: Hotspot Analysis in 2026 - US Soybean Price: The price of US soybeans in 2025/26 highly depends on China's procurement. Different procurement volumes will have different impacts on US soybean inventories and prices [64][65][66]. Part 6: Recommended Trading Strategies in 2026 - Soybean Series: The global non - Chinese soybean supply and demand remain loose in 2025/26. The US supply contracts, Brazil's is abundant, and Argentina's is affected by weather. The US soybean price depends on China's procurement [67]. - Rapeseed Series: The global rapeseed output increases in 2025/26. The rapeseed price in 2026 will fluctuate widely and be driven by events, depending on China - Canada trade policies [68]. - Palm Oil: The global palm oil supply is tight in 2025/26 but expected to grow in 2026. The price may be supported by biodiesel, with potential opportunities in the first quarter [69][70].