高库存下呈偏空态势，限气驱动下寻求反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will present a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and moderately slowing demand." The price may stabilize and experience a phased rebound in the first half of the year but face pressure again in the second half. The market is expected to fluctuate widely throughout the year, and the upward space depends on unexpected improvements in demand or unexpected contractions in the supply side [2][73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - The methanol market in 2025 showed a downward trend overall, with two price increases in June - July but lacking driving forces. High inventory led to the price hitting a three - year low [5]. - In Q1 2025, methanol prices oscillated weakly at a high level. Low imports due to Iranian device outages and late overseas device returns supported prices, while high domestic supply pushed prices down slowly [5]. - From April to May, methanol prices dropped significantly as Iranian devices resumed operation, increasing imports, and macro - weakness and falling crude oil prices also contributed to the decline [5]. - From June to July, there were two rebounds. The first was due to the Iranian conflict, and the second was supported by coal price increases. However, both rebounds were short - lived [7]. - From July onwards, high inventory continued to suppress prices. Only in late November did prices rebound slightly due to Iranian winter gas restrictions, but the upward space was limited [7][8]. Supply Analysis - Coal prices have been declining in recent years, leading to improved profitability of coal - to - methanol production. In 2025, coal - to - methanol production was profitable for most of the year, and it is expected to remain marginally profitable in 2026, which will encourage enterprises to maintain production [14][16]. - In 2025, the methanol industry had a high operating rate, with an annual average operating rate of 86.9%. High profitability drove high production, and it is expected to remain high in 2026 [17]. - In 2025, new methanol production capacity was about 990 million tons/year, and more capacity will be put into operation in 2026. However, most new capacity has downstream support, so the actual supply pressure may not be large [26]. - In 2025, inland inventory was low, with an average of about 351,400 tons as of December 12. In 2026, inland inventory is expected to remain low with seasonal fluctuations and low inventory accumulation pressure [30]. Import Analysis - In 2025, foreign operating rates fluctuated greatly, and monthly imports reached a new high in August. The import pattern was "less in the first half and more in the second half," which put continuous pressure on the domestic market. Iranian gas restrictions in late 2025 were less than expected, which contributed to the price decline [32][33]. - Global methanol production capacity growth has slowed down, and there is only one new device planned for 2026, with high uncertainty. Iran may maintain high exports, but there are also uncertainties in maintaining high - load operations [43]. - In 2025, port inventory showed a pattern of "first low and then high." As of December 12, the average port inventory was about 988,800 tons. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain at a moderately high level, and the inflection point of inventory reduction depends on the duration and intensity of Iranian gas restrictions [50][52]. Demand Analysis - In 2025, the profitability of MTO improved, and the operating rate was stable, with an average operating rate of 86.75% as of December 12. In 2026, MTO capacity and production are expected to increase steadily, but profitability may be under pressure [54][61]. - In 2025, new MTO production capacity was about 236 million tons/year, and more capacity will be added in 2026. However, new capacity may squeeze industry profits, and attention should be paid to the operating rate fluctuations of external - procurement MTO devices [61]. - In 2025, acetic acid production capacity expanded significantly, but competition intensified, and profitability was under pressure. In 2026, capacity growth may slow down, but demand for methanol will remain stable [65]. - In 2025, formaldehyde was affected by the real - estate industry, with low profitability and an average operating rate of 43.76% as of December 12. It is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 [69][70]. - In 2025, MTBE exports were strong, with an average operating rate of 62.85% as of December 12 and a cumulative export volume of 3.6287 million tons from January to October. However, in 2026, the export momentum may weaken, and the overall demand will be moderately weak [71]. Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the domestic methanol supply is expected to remain loose, and imports may be similar to or slightly higher than in 2025. Port inventory will remain at a moderately high level [73]. - MTO will provide rigid support for methanol demand, but profitability may be under pressure. Traditional downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak [74]. - Strategies include seizing buying opportunities in Q1 based on import reductions and exploring structured opportunities such as spot - futures arbitrage [2][75].