钢材、铁矿：供需双弱、重心下移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure due to the pattern of "weak supply and demand", with the price center further moving down. In 2026, the pattern of "decreasing supply and weak demand" for steel is expected to continue, but the supply - demand gap may narrow marginally under policy guidance. The iron ore market is expected to enter a new stage of "continuous supply expansion and differentiated demand structure" [1][78][80]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side structural optimization continued to exert force in 2025, accelerating supply contraction. In 2026, the policy direction of "controlling the total amount and optimizing the structure" remains unchanged for steel supply [1][78][80]. - The demand side shows significant differentiation and weakness. Real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure investment growth slowed down significantly, and although steel exports provided some resilience, they were difficult to fully offset the decline in domestic demand [1][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Weak Supply and Demand, Oscillating Downward - In 2025, black - series commodities continued the trend of oversupply and weak oscillation, with coking coal falling 5.94% and coke dropping 12.67%, iron ore's decline narrowing to 2.12%, and rebar falling 5.51%. The overall trend can be divided into four stages: oscillating upward from early January to late February, moving down from early March to late May, slowly rebounding from early June to early August, and oscillating downward from early August onwards [3][4]. 3.2 Steel Supply: Environmental Restrictions, Continuous Decline 3.2.1 Global Supply: Structurally Differentiated Economic Recovery, Production Expected to Continue Contracting - In the first 10 months of 2025, global crude steel production decreased year - on - year. China's crude steel production declined, while India's increased significantly, and the United States, Turkey and other countries also showed an upward trend. In 2026, global crude steel production is expected to continue a slight downward trend [10]. - In 2026, China's crude steel supply is expected to remain within 1 billion tons. India is expected to maintain an increasing trend, and the production of countries like Turkey is expected to continue growing, but it is difficult to fully make up for the reduction in China's production [1][13]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply: Continuous Reduction due to Environmental Restrictions - Since 2021, China has implemented policies to control steel production capacity. In 2025, relevant policies further tightened the control of new production capacity. From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 817.41 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.56%. It is expected that the annual production in 2025 will be in the range of 970 - 980 million tons, a decrease of about 2.5% - 3.5% compared with 2024 [16]. - In 2026, under the pressure of macro - policies and weak demand, China's crude steel production is expected to continue to contract [20]. 3.3 Steel Demand: Real Estate Continues to Weaken, Infrastructure Investment Growth Slows Down 3.3.1 Limited Support from Real Estate Policies, Difficult to Change the Weak Reality - In 2025, China introduced a series of real estate support policies, but the real estate market was still in a deep - adjustment period. From January to October, real estate development investment decreased by 14.77%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.87%, and the completion area decreased by 16.99%. In 2026, the real estate market will continue to be under pressure [25][30][32]. 3.3.2 Steel Exports Reach a New High in Total, but Structural Contradictions are Prominent - In 2025, China's steel exports maintained a high level in quantity, but the average export price continued to decline, and the product structure was continuously optimized. The exports to "Belt and Road" countries showed strong growth. Indirect exports of electromechanical products, automobiles (especially new - energy vehicles) were relatively optimistic, while home - appliance exports showed a downward trend [34][36][40]. 3.3.3 Investment: Manufacturing Remains Stable - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's fixed - asset investment was under pressure, but manufacturing investment remained resilient. In 2026, the manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, and in 2026, infrastructure construction investment will continue to follow the active fiscal policy orientation [42][46][53]. 3.4 Iron Ore: Loose Supply, Weakening Demand 3.4.1 Supply: Loose Overseas Ore Pattern, Limited Increment of Domestic Ore - In 2025, the production of the four major iron - ore mines increased slightly in the first three quarters. It is estimated that the annual production in 2025 will increase by more than 4% compared with 2024. The Simandou project started shipping, which will have a profound impact on the market pattern. In 2026, Vale and Rio Tinto plan to expand production capacity [57][61][62]. - In 2025, China's iron - ore production decreased year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume increased by 1.4%, and the port inventory reached a high level. In 2026, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and the import dependence will remain high [69][71][72]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Domestic Demand, Weakening Export Support - In 2025, domestic demand for iron ore was weak, and the direct export growth of iron ore slowed down. In 2026, China's iron - ore demand is expected to continue the pattern of structural differentiation, with the overall pig - iron output slightly falling and steel exports being the core support [75]. - In 2026, the iron - ore market will enter a new stage of long - term supply relaxation. The price is expected to be under long - term downward pressure, and the market trading logic will shift from "quantity increase" to the game of "ore quality" and "production cost" [76]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure, with supply contracting and demand weakening. The iron - ore market shifted from "tight balance" to "loose" [78][79]. - In 2026, the rebar price is expected to show an "M" - shaped oscillation, with the price center in the range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton. The iron - ore import price center is expected to be maintained in the range of 90 - 100 US dollars/ton [80][81].