国投期货能源日报-20251222

Report Information - Report Name: Energy Daily [3] - Date: December 22, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Yingmin (Intermediate Analyst, F3066912 Z0016785), Li Haiqun (Intermediate Analyst, F03107558 Z0021515) [3] - Contact: 010 - 58747784, gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn [3] Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] Core Views - The continuous escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela has increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, causing Brent crude oil prices to exceed $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market sentiment has warmed up [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current Middle - East exports remain high with sufficient overall supply, while geopolitical situations may be the main variable. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the medium - term supply tends to be loose, and the market is expected to be under pressure [5]. - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1060000 tons, showing significant declines both month - on - month and year - on - year. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rebound [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On December 21, US personnel intercepted and inspected a third oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The escalating US - Venezuela tensions have increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, and Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market has a bullish sentiment [4]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The Middle - East exports remain high with sufficient overall supply. However, geopolitical situations may be the main variable, with a decline in Russian shipments. The tense US - Venezuela relations and potential new US sanctions on Russia may affect high - sulfur raw materials. The market is expected to fluctuate between medium - term supply loosening and short - term geopolitical impacts [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The medium - term supply tends to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials in East Africa is expected to gradually recover, overseas key refineries are复产, and some RFCC units are entering the maintenance period, which may lead to a marginal increase in low - sulfur supply, putting pressure on the market [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1060000 tons, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The demand in the northern market is flat, while that in the eastern market is stable. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rebound [6]