有色金属日报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for upward/downward trend but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, poor operability on the trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see) [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, inventory changes, and supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding investment advice based on different metal characteristics and market situations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper increased in position and reached a new high. The price of spot copper rose to 93,675 yuan. The discount of Shanghai copper widened to 195 yuan, and that of Guangdong copper was 75 yuan. The premium of Yangshan copper slightly increased to 48 dollars. SMM social inventory increased to 168,400 tons, a weekly increase of nearly 4,000 tons. There is still an expectation of production rush by domestic smelters this month. The copper price is approaching the target of 12,000 dollars. Hold a small number of long positions with a support level of 92,500 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum opened higher and then fell slightly. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China widened. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 22,000 tons and that of aluminum rods by 3,000 tons. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. The social inventory fluctuates within a narrow range, and the apparent demand is not outstanding. In the short term, the market is macro - driven, and the bullish sentiment continues. The price of Shanghai aluminum mainly follows the upward trend. Hold long positions with the 40 - day moving average as the support and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 increased by 100 yuan to 21,300 yuan. The inventory and exchange warehouse receipts of the cast - aluminum industry fluctuate within a narrow range. Tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. Driven by the macro environment, the cast - aluminum alloy has limited ability to follow the upward trend at a high level. The supply of alumina is in an over - supply situation, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The cost of alumina has room to decline. Before large - scale production cuts, alumina is mainly weak, and the decline of the spot price is more certain due to the large basis [3] Zinc - Intraday, long positions were slightly replenished. The weighted daily position of Shanghai zinc increased by 1,508 lots to 195,000 lots, and the price stood firm above the upper edge of the previous consolidation range, remaining in an upward trend. LME zinc inventory accumulated to 100,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot discount was 30.61 dollars/ton. The capital squeeze atmosphere subsided, and the zinc export window closed. In late December, more domestic smelters carried out maintenance. Downstream consumption declined temporarily due to environmental protection control in the north, but overall, it still showed resilience. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [4] Lead - The overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. Domestic primary lead smelters that had previously carried out maintenance are gradually resuming production. The consumption side has both positive and negative factors, and the upward momentum of lead is weak. The TC of lead concentrate remains stable at a low level, the price of waste batteries stops falling, and the cost support for recycled lead is still strong. The refined - scrap price difference is 50 yuan/ton. The domestic lead inventory is low, and the position and volume pressure need to be tracked. It is expected that Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - On Monday, the price of Shanghai nickel rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The market performance was mainly due to the stop - loss of industrial short positions, and the irrational trend is expected to have limited sustainability. The news from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association last week triggered a stir in the nickel market. In 2026, the nickel ore quota will be reduced to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 380 million tons quota in 2025, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be revised at the beginning of 2026. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,700 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel fell slightly, and the price of high - nickel pig iron is 888 yuan per nickel point. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 260 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons. It is advisable to wait for the end of the market fluctuation and mainly wait and see in the short term [7] Tin - The position of Shanghai tin decreased, and the price fluctuated greatly in both directions during the session. The price of spot tin rose to 340,600 yuan, with a real - time discount of 1,230 yuan to the 2501 contract. In November, the import volume of tin concentrate in China continued to recover. The supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Myanmar continued to increase. According to the average price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in November, the supply of Myanmar ore has recovered to 820 metal tons, recording the second - highest monthly import volume this year. Pay attention to the possible mining conference in low - grade areas around the New Year. High tin prices continue to suppress consumption. In terms of inventory, LME tin inventory increased by 975 tons to 4,645 tons last week, and the LME 0 - 3 - month contract turned to a discount of 11 dollars. The SMM social inventory in China increased by 732 tons to 9,192 tons. The inventories in both markets are high. The market shows strong resonance between position and volume, and the high - level risk is emphasized [8] Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate rose again and fluctuated. The market trading was active. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan, and the price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 2,650 yuan. The high increase in the price of lithium carbonate has led to the continuous rise of lithium ore prices. However, due to the lack of confidence in maintaining high lithium carbonate prices in the market, the trading enthusiasm at the current high level is limited. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,500 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 51,000 tons. The sentiment in the middle - stream link is high, and the spot side shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 1,385 dollars, and the ore - price quotation remains strong. The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates strongly, the fundamentals are generally strong, and short positions are relatively disadvantaged [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. According to SMM, some silicon enterprises in the north have the intention to cut production but have not implemented it yet. In terms of weekly output, the output in Xinjiang decreased slightly, the output in other northwest regions remained stable, and the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan remained unchanged. On the demand side, the average price of silicone increased to 13,600 yuan/ton, and the weekly output of DMC increased slightly. The weekly output of polysilicon continued to decline, the operating rate remained at 41 - 42%, and the factory inventory increased to 306,300 tons (according to Baichuan Yingfu). The profit performance is good. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of industrial silicon is about 553,000 tons, with a decrease of 800 tons (SMM). The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, the factory inventories in Yunnan and Xinjiang have all increased. Overall, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are still under pressure. It shows a relatively strong performance due to the expectation of production cuts before the end of the month, but the upward space is limited at present [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased the minimum number of opening lots. On Monday, the position decreased and the price corrected, closing at 58,845 yuan/ton. The market trading cooled down. In the spot market, some enterprises significantly increased their quotations, but there is no actual transaction follow - up, and the upstream and downstream are in continuous game. In terms of news, the production quota in 2026 may be significantly tightened, which may affect market sentiment. In December in the short term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the factory inventory of polysilicon remains at a high level of 293,000 tons. The warehouse receipts increased slightly last week. If the futures price fails to effectively break through 60,000 yuan/ton, it will continue to fluctuate. The operation should mainly focus on risk prevention [11]