机械行业 2026 年投资策略：用全球化的动能打破周期的桎梏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the mechanical industry is "Positive" and is maintained [10]. Core Insights - The mechanical index saw a significant increase of 35.3% from the beginning of the year to the end of October 2025, primarily driven by valuation multiple expansion rather than profit growth [5][22]. - The performance of thematic sectors in the mechanical industry is largely in line with traditional sectors, but the valuation level of thematic sectors has increased significantly more than that of traditional sectors [5][24]. - For 2026, the focus will be on overseas demand and domestic pricing, with three main investment themes identified: global competitiveness and capital expenditure, valuation-driven sector rotation, and emerging industries such as AI and humanoid robots [5][38]. Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - The mechanical index's growth was mainly due to a 22% increase in PE multiples, rising from 28.2 to 34.4, while profits grew by nearly 15% year-on-year [22][29]. - Key factors for exceeding performance expectations included overseas demand driven by trends in AI, natural gas spending in the Middle East, and infrastructure cycles abroad [29][30]. Investment Strategy 1: Global Competitiveness and External Demand Elasticity - China's manufacturing competitiveness is steadily improving, with significant opportunities for equipment exports supported by global capital expenditure increases due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [6][38]. - The tool industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the U.S. real estate sector, while the engineering machinery sector is anticipated to see upward resonance in both domestic and overseas markets [6][38]. Investment Strategy 2: Valuation-Driven Sector Rotation - With expected liquidity from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, sectors with relatively low valuations are recommended for investment [7][39]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to experience upward valuation space due to ongoing technological advancements, while the photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to recover as new technologies emerge [7][39]. Investment Strategy 3: Investing in the Future - Emerging industries such as AI and humanoid robots are expected to thrive, with strong market demand and increasing capital expenditure [8][39]. - The AI industry is transitioning into a high-quality growth phase, with significant potential for profit and valuation increases [8][39].