2026年度中国期货市场投资报告：聚酯板块：原油低位下的供需博弈

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the polyester sector will return to the supply - demand fundamentals due to the weakening cost support. There are supply - demand mismatches, and investors should focus on the structural opportunities between varieties [2][97]. - The crude oil market is in a game between "geopolitical risk support" and "loose supply - demand pressure". In 2026, the crude oil price center is expected to move down, with the WTI crude oil fluctuating between $50 - 70 per barrel [2][17][95]. - In the first half of 2026, PX supply is relatively tight, and investors can seize the seasonal rebound opportunities. When the new PX device production expectations are fulfilled, they can try the arbitrage of going long on PTA and short on PX [2][97]. - PTA has no new production pressure in 2026, and its processing profit is expected to improve. The price center is expected to move up. One can try the arbitrage of going long on PTA and short on ethylene glycol [2][49][97]. - The expansion speed of polyester bottle - chip production slows down in 2026. One can focus on the arbitrage opportunity of going long on bottle - chips and short on short - fibers [2][97]. Summary by Directory 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the polyester sector's operating center moved down, and the varieties' trends diverged. PX and PTA fluctuated widely, short - fibers and bottle - chips followed PTA passively, and ethylene glycol showed a downward trend [5]. - From January to April, affected by trade conflicts and other factors, the polyester sector first rose with crude oil and then fell sharply. From May to June, it rebounded due to improved trade relations and supply - demand patterns. From July to August, it was high - running due to "anti - involution" speculation. From September, the trends of varieties diverged [5][6][7]. - By December 17, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fibers, and bottle - chips all declined, with ethylene glycol having the largest decline of 22.45% [8]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - In 2026, the global crude oil supply surplus pressure increases. EIA, IEA, and OPEC all agree on the trend of supply turning loose, but there are differences in specific forecasts [10]. - Geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the tense US - Venezuela relationship increase market uncertainty. If the situation eases, more supply may be released [14]. - In 2026, the US dollar index is expected to oscillate strongly, which will suppress the prices of international crude oil and other commodities [17]. PX Market Analysis - In 2025, domestic PX production increased slightly, and imports recovered. The annual average domestic PX operating rate was 85.58%, and the annual production was about 3820 tons. The Asian PX operating rate was not high, and domestic PX imports increased slightly [22][23]. - In 2026, the domestic PX production speed will accelerate again, but the pressure is concentrated in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter. There are many new device production plans in the second half of the year [25]. - In 2026, the gasoline blending demand support is limited, and imported PX may decrease slightly. In the first half of the year, PX supply is relatively tight, and the supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year [27][30]. PTA Market Analysis - In 2025, domestic PTA production growth slowed down, and the inventory decreased throughout the year. The annual average processing fee was 258.14 yuan/ton, and the annual production was about 7300 tons [37]. - In 2025, PTA exports showed negative growth, mainly due to overseas capacity expansion and insufficient demand [41]. - In 2026, there is no domestic PTA production pressure, and the processing profit is expected to improve. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price center is expected to move up [43][49]. Ethylene Glycol Market Analysis - In 2025, new ethylene glycol devices were put into production, and the production of domestic ethylene glycol continued to increase. The annual average capacity utilization rate was 63.42%, and the annual production exceeded 2000 tons [51][55]. - In 2025, ethylene glycol imports increased, and the port inventory increased overall. The main import sources were Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc. [60]. - In 2026, ethylene glycol imports may decline slightly, but the domestic capacity continues to expand, and the supply pressure increases. The inventory accumulation pressure is large in the first and fourth quarters [64]. Demand Analysis - In 2025, the domestic polyester capacity expansion speed slowed down slightly, and the production was close to 80 million tons. The annual average polyester operating rate was 87.95% [67][73]. - In 2026, the domestic polyester capacity expansion speed will slow down, with an expected new capacity of 5.16 million tons. The production of polyester bottle - chips slows down, and the production of short - fibers speeds up [85]. - In 2025, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms declined, and the order situation was worse than in 2024. In 2026, domestic demand is expected to warm up moderately, and external demand will improve slightly [88][89][93]. Outlook for the Future - Crude oil will maintain a low - level oscillation, and OPEC+ policies and geopolitical risks will magnify market fluctuations [95]. - In the first half of 2026, PX is a relatively long - position variety in the industrial chain. PTA's price center is expected to move up, ethylene glycol will run relatively weakly, and the polyester capacity expansion speed will slow down [95][96]. - The terminal demand is expected to improve, waiting for more policy guidance [96].