软商品日报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (implied by the text) [1][3] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber. It analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and other factors for each commodity and gives corresponding investment suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly, with positions shifting from the 01 contract to the 05 contract, breaking through the previous trading range. Spot cotton sales basis remained stable [2] - Despite a large increase in new cotton production this year, commercial inventories are similar to last year, and the sales progress is fast, supporting the market. Demand is stable in the off - season [2] - In November 2025, cotton imports increased month - on - month. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports decreased year - on - year. As of December 18, domestic cotton processing increased year - on - year [2] - There are expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, and their finished product inventories are low. The market is bullish, and industries can look for hedging opportunities [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar prices were low. The production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of November was neutral, and the current crushing season is ending [3] - After the rainy season, less rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region may lead to a decline in sugarcane yield next year [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow, and imports decreased year - on - year [3] - In the short term, with a strong expectation of increased production in the Northern Hemisphere, sugar prices at home and abroad are expected to continue to decline. However, there may be production cuts in major producing countries next year [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods, and the purchase of farmers' apples was low [4] - As of December 19, national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year, and the destocking volume also decreased significantly [4] - The market's trading logic has shifted to demand. Poor apple quality, high purchase prices, and strong reluctance to sell may affect destocking speed. With demand in the off - season, the market is bearish [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices fluctuated, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, and synthetic rubber prices were stable to rising [5] - Global natural rubber supply is entering the decreasing production season. Some domestic production areas will stop tapping. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased [5] - China's tire operating rate decreased slightly last week, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased, while China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased [5] - In November, China's tire exports, butadiene rubber imports and exports, and butadiene imports had different changes. Overall, demand is weakening, and there are opportunities for cross - commodity arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp prices rose significantly today. As of December 18, 2025, China's mainstream pulp port inventory decreased, although it is still higher year - on - year [6] - In November, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, may face less pressure from warehouse receipts. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supports softwood pulp [6] - Paper mills' pulp purchases are mainly for essential needs, and the increase in base paper prices is weak. The pulp market is highly competitive. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term operations [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. Foreign quotes decreased, and domestic prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of December 19, the average daily出库 volume of 13 national ports decreased week - on - week, but the demand in the off - season is still acceptable. The national log inventory decreased, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [7] - Low inventory supports prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]