国投期货化工日报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star indicates a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastics: ★★☆ (Two stars indicate a long/short position, with a clearer upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Other products with ☆☆☆: Short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1][10] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as raw material prices, production capacity changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations. For some products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed lower. The market supply is relatively abundant, and producers have a strong willingness to stabilize the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures fell sharply. Polyethylene has high - load supply, slow inventory removal, and weak demand. Polypropylene has sufficient supply and expected weakening demand in the off - season [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated weakly in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. There are expectations of supply - demand pressure relief, but the supply growth expectation limits the driving force. Consider long - spread position building on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures closed higher, maintaining a low - level range - bound pattern. The market is expected to have both supply and demand growth, but supply may increase more, and the weak pure benzene market has limited support [3] Polyester - PX has no new capacity in three years, and the recent sharp increase is due to supply decline expectations. PTA is driven by PX, and polyester has a short - term stable start but a medium - term load - reduction expectation [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply contraction expectations but lacks upward drive. It is expected to be under long - term pressure and trade in a low - level range [5] - Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, with a relatively good long - term supply - demand pattern. Bottle - chip demand weakens, with cost - driven price increases and poor profitability [6] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operations decline. The port may accumulate inventory in the short term, with short - term weak and volatile market and medium - long - term upward driving force [7] - Urea gas - head plant maintenance leads to a slight decline in production. The market is oversupplied, and short - term prices may fall with market sentiment [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell. Supply pressure eases, but demand is low, and cost support weakens. It may operate at a low level [8] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated. Supply pressure is high, downstream demand growth is limited, and industry profits will continue to be compressed [8] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is large, and demand may decline. Consider short - selling on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy [9] - Glass prices weakened. Inventory pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and the industry needs to continue to cut production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]