农产品日报-20251222

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Positive Outlook: Soybean (★★★), indicating a clear upward trend and relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Moderate Positive: Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal (★★☆), suggesting a relatively clear upward - trending judgment and an ongoing market rally [1] - Weak Positive: Rapeseed Oil, Corn (★☆☆), showing a driving force for upward movement but limited market operability [1] - Weak Negative: Eggs (★☆☆), with a driving force for downward movement but limited market operability [1] - Negative Outlook: Live Pigs (★★★), indicating a clear downward trend and relatively good short - selling opportunities (implied) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trends of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy. Different products have different outlooks, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to be in a volatile state [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Product Category Soybean - After a brief gap, the soybean market rebounded, and the contract was being rolled over. The auction of 21,000 tons of soybeans by Sinograin had a turnover of 13,000 tons at a base price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4027 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton, providing support to the price [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved recently, with a 68% probability that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean futures have fallen back to the previous low - range, and new - season US soybean sales are the lowest in the same period of the past five years. In China, last week, the inventory of imported soybeans in oil mills increased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The price of soybean meal will follow the fluctuations of US soybeans and wait for changes in South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil reduced their positions, and prices rebounded from the low level, presumably due to short - covering by bears. Malaysian high - frequency data shows that palm oil exports have improved month - on - month, while production has declined month - on - month, alleviating the bearish atmosphere. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and the short - term weather risk in South American production areas is low [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market has rebounded recently. After the continuous decline in futures prices, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to the marginal positive factors in supply and demand. Coastal oil mills in China maintain zero inventory of rapeseed products, and the restart of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade is difficult to predict. In the medium term, with a global oversupply of rapeseed, rapeseed prices are under pressure, and the price bottoming process may be long. The trading strategy for rapeseed products has changed from bearish to short - term wait - and - see [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and northern ports remain weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality and high - priced corn. Corn procurement enthusiasm in North China has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. After the short - term supply - demand imbalance is alleviated, the enthusiasm of upstream sellers is on the rise, while downstream procurement shows no significant increase. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - After the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume dropped rapidly, and the weekend spot price of live pigs was significantly reduced. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20% - 30%. It is expected that there will be another round of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide short - term support for the current pig price. In the medium to long term, the pig cycle bottom usually shows a double - bottom ("W") pattern, and the low price in October is likely the first bottom. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year under the pressure of supply and the off - season of demand. The main 03 contract is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg spot price is in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an oversupply situation. The February contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the industry's inventory is decreasing month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and combined with the off - season demand, the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year are expected to be relatively strong as the supply continues to decline month - on - month and demand returns to normal. An egg reverse spread strategy can be considered, such as 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spreads. The high - premium contracts for the peak season next year are not suitable for investment currently [9]