橡胶甲醇原油：偏多因素支撑能化偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,205 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.13% lower. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - Methanol: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,175 yuan/ton and a low of 2,131 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.23% lower at 2,155 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 39 yuan/ton. Driven by the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - Crude Oil: On Monday of this week, the 2602 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and rebounding significantly. The price reached a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 2.46% higher at 437.9 yuan/barrel. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium has driven the oil price to rebound, and the crude oil futures may stabilize temporarily in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%, and the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate, but the overall shipment was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase of the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and stably this week [9]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 58,433 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. As of December 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 40,988 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Change in Basis (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 | - 200 | 15,205 | +15 | - 355 | - 15 | | Methanol | 2,155 | +5 | 2,155 | +7 | 0 | - 7 | | Crude Oil | 395.2 | +0.1 | 437.9 | +11.3 | - 42.7 | - 11.2 | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]