全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第217期)-20251222

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation of quotas is basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices is starting to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [2] - Although the quota base carry - over of the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons, the actual procurement enthusiasm of most enterprises may be lower than expected due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 [3] - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize above 60 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Conditions - CEA: The increase of the main target continued to expand, breaking through the 65 - yuan mark; 590,000 tons were listed, and 1.064 million tons were traded in bulk. Among different years' CEA, CEA24 had a closing price of 65.43 yuan/ton with a 7.26% increase, a total trading volume of 1.445 million tons, and a listed agreement trading volume of 581,400 tons [2][5] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 10,000 tons, and the average trading price was 79.00 yuan/ton, with a 25.37% increase [2][7] Strategy Signal The signal strength is 1 (0 means short - position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [2]