金融期权周报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market showed a volatile trend of falling first and then rising last week, with most indices closing down weekly. The Kechuang 50 index led the decline with a weekly drop of 2.99%. Sectors such as retail and non - banking finance performed prominently with weekly gains of 6.65% and 2.89% respectively, while sectors like electronics and power equipment were weaker, with weekly drops of about 3.28% and 3.12% respectively [1]. - The market focus last week was on the policy statements of central banks. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the yen's weakening trend remained due to continued concerns about Japan's fiscal situation. In the US, inflation data cooled more than expected, and non - farm payroll data remained resilient, which helped stabilize market expectations for US stocks. Geopolitical tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict supported the euro's relative strength. Overall, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike jointly led to a slight strengthening of the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate was relatively strong, and it is expected that the domestic market may continue the volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in US dollar liquidity and domestic policy signals [1]. - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options mainly declined and remained at a relatively low level this year. The IV of the ChiNext Index ETF option had the deepest decline, reaching 8.20%. The IV of the Kechuang 50 option (IV = 23%) and the ChiNext Index option (IV = 23%) has fallen below the median of the past year. The IV of the 50 and 300 options is currently in the range of 10% - 12%, and the IV of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is in the range of 14% - 16%. The PCR of most financial options' open interest is still in the range of 90% - 130%, slightly lower than the previous week [2]. - The market may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, and the IV of various financial options remains at a low level this year. It is advisable to continue holding indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500. Currently, the IV of options has declined, and one can also buy out - of - the - money call options with a long - term expiration date of the corresponding indices. For the Kechuang 50 index, which has large recent fluctuations and still has a relatively high static valuation, if one holds the underlying asset, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If one has accumulated a large amount of spot returns, one can also consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to deal with the market's irrational rise, such as for the ChiNext Index. The CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures still have a relatively high discount, and one can consider continuing to hold the covered call strategy of long - index and short - out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overview - The market showed a volatile trend of falling first and then rising last week, with most indices closing down weekly. The Kechuang 50 index led the decline, and sectors such as retail and non - banking finance performed well, while electronics and power equipment sectors were weak [1]. - Market focus was on central bank policies, geopolitical situations, and the combined effect of the Fed and the Bank of Japan's policies on the US dollar index. The RMB was relatively strong, and the domestic market may continue the volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [1]. Options Market - The IV of various financial options mainly declined last week and remained at a low level this year. The IV of the ChiNext Index ETF option had the deepest decline. The IV of some options has fallen below the one - year median, and the PCR of open interest has slightly decreased [2]. Strategy Outlook - The market may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, and option IV remains at a low level. Strategies include holding reasonable - valued indices, buying long - term out - of - the - money call options, risk - hedging for the Kechuang 50 index, taking profits on spot assets and keeping long - term call options for the ChiNext Index, and holding the covered call strategy for the CSI 1000 - 2603 futures [3]. Market Data of Various Options - Data on the closing price, rise - fall rate, IV, IV change, historical percentile, one - year median IV, trading volume, and open interest PCR of multiple options such as the SSE 50ETF, CSI 300ETF, and others are provided [5]. - For each option, detailed data on the underlying asset price, rise - fall rate, IV, and its percentile in the past one and two years for the current and next months are presented, along with relevant charts such as the price - IV trend, IV term structure, and smile curve [9][21][30] etc.