国投期货农产品日报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Upward Trend (Red Stars): None - Downward Trend (Green Stars): None - Bullish with Low Operability (One Star): Egg (★☆☆) [1][11] - Bearish with Low Operability (One Star): None - Bullish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars): None - Bearish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars): None - Bullish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars): None - Bearish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars): None - Balanced Trend with Low Operability (White Stars): All Others [1][11] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soymeal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs, providing insights into price trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The main soybean contract recovered after a brief gap, with ongoing position transfers. Today, CGS plans to auction 21,000 tons of soybeans, with 13,000 tons sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 4,027 yuan/ton, with premiums ranging from 0 - 160 yuan/ton. The premium auction supported the price, keeping it stable and strong. Monitor fundamentals and policies [2] Soybeans & Soymeal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% chance of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has shifted back to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper South American harvest. New - season US soybean sales are at a five - year low, and futures prices have fallen to previous lows. In China, last week, soybean inventories at oil mills slightly increased, while soymeal inventories decreased. Monitor US soybean exports and the impact of La Nina in South America. Soymeal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate, pending South American weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded from lows after position reductions, likely due to short - covering. Malaysian palm oil data shows improved exports and lower production, easing the bearish sentiment. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and short - term weather risks in South American production areas are low. Monitor fundamentals [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have rebounded. After continuous price drops, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to marginal supply - demand improvements. Coastal oil mills in China have zero rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed has not started being crushed. The stability of China - Australia rapeseed trade is uncertain. In the medium term, global rapeseed supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices and potentially leading to a long bottom - forming period. The rapeseed strategy has changed from bearish to short - term neutral [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and northern ports are weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality, high - priced grains. In North China, corn purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Prices are stable but weak. The number of remaining trucks at corn deep - processing enterprises has decreased. After the temporary supply - demand mismatch eased, upstream selling enthusiasm is rising, while downstream purchases have not increased significantly. Monitor Northeast selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Hogs - Slaughter volume dropped rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and weekend hog spot prices fell sharply. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20 - 30%. There may be a second - fattening restocking wave before the Spring Festival, which could support the current hog price. In the long term, historical hog cycles often have a double - bottom ("W") pattern. The October low was likely the first emotional bottom, and hog prices are likely to form a second bottom in H1 next year due to supply pressure and weak demand. The 03 contract is expected to remain weak [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an over - supplied market. The February contract corresponds to the post - Spring Festival off - season. Although the industry's inventory will decline month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and demand is weak, so the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year will see a continued month - on - month decline in supply and a return to normal demand, so prices are expected to be relatively strong. Consider 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategies. The high - premium peak - season contracts are not yet investable [9]