Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] Report's Core View - The continuous escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela has intensified market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, causing the Brent crude oil price to exceed the $60/barrel mark, and driving up the sentiment of the domestic crude - oil related product market [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current Middle East exports remain at a high level with abundant overall supply, but geopolitical situations may be the main variable; for low - sulfur fuel oil, the medium - term supply tends to be loose and the market is expected to be under pressure [5]. - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1.06 million tons, showing significant declines both month - on - month and year - on - year. The market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten due to the Venezuela situation, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rise [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On December 21, US personnel intercepted and inspected the third oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The escalating US - Venezuela tension increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, and the Brent crude oil price exceeded $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market sentiment improved [4]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The Middle East export remains at a high level with abundant supply. Geopolitical situations such as the decline in Russia's shipping volume, the tense US - Venezuela relationship and potential new US sanctions on Russia may affect the subsequent high - sulfur raw materials. The market will likely see a tug - of - war between the medium - term supply loosening and short - term geopolitical fluctuations [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The medium - term supply tends to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials in East Africa is expected to gradually recover, overseas key refineries will resume production one after another, and some RFCC units will enter the maintenance period, potentially increasing the marginal supply of low - sulfur fuel oil and putting pressure on the market [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1.06 million tons, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The demand in the northern market is flat, and the rigid demand in the eastern market is stable. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the rebound of crude oil today provides strong cost - side support, driving the BU price to rise [6]
能源日报-20251222
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-12-22 13:05