化工日报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not Rated - Methanol: Not Rated - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a weak trading opportunity) - Plastic: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend with the market moving in that direction) - PVC: Not Rated - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - PX: Not Rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Ethylene Glycol: Not Rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Glass: Not Rated - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Bottle Chip: Not Rated - Propylene: Not Rated [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various products. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as raw material prices, production plans, and seasonal demand changes. [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed down. Supply is relatively abundant, and producers aim to stabilize the market. - Plastic and polypropylene futures fell sharply. For polyethylene, supply is high, inventory removal is slow, and demand is weak. For polypropylene, supply is still ample, and demand is expected to weaken. [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices were weak in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. Supply - demand pressure may ease, but supply growth is expected. Consider long - spread arbitrage on dips in the medium term. - Styrene futures closed up, maintaining a low - range consolidation. Supply may increase more than demand, and pure benzene may have a weak impact. [3] Polyester - PX prices rose due to supply reduction expectations. PTA's upward drive comes from PX, but polyester may reduce production in the medium term. - Some ethylene glycol plants plan to shut down, but long - term pressure remains, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - range. [5] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices follow raw materials, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. - Bottle chip demand is weakening, and the profit is still not ideal due to over - capacity. [6] Coal Chemicals - Methanol may oscillate weakly in the short term and has upward potential in the long term. - Urea supply exceeds demand, and the market may decline with weakening sentiment. [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fell. Supply pressure eases, but demand is low, and it may run at a low level. - Caustic soda oscillated. Supply pressure is high, and the industry will continue to compress profits. [8] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is large, and demand may decline. Consider a long - glass short - soda ash strategy. - Glass prices weakened. Inventory pressure is high, and the industry needs to reduce capacity. [9]