海外宏观周报：通胀与就业同步降温-20251222

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent U.S. economic data indicates a simultaneous cooling of inflation and employment, with November CPI falling to 2.7% year-on-year[10] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, marking five consecutive months of increases[10] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates more than the market's current expectation of two cuts in 2026[1] Group 2: Small Business Outlook - Small businesses have faced significant profit pressure compared to large enterprises since the interest rate hike cycle began in 2022, but recent adjustments in profit expectations have narrowed the gap[2] - Small business valuations are at historical lows, suggesting potential for future rebounds, especially during a rate-cutting cycle[2] - The capital expenditure of tech giants is expected to positively impact the profitability of downstream small businesses, as historical data shows a strong correlation between overall capital expenditure and small business revenue[2] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - If inflation exceeds expectations, it may delay or limit the extent of interest rate cuts, weakening the financing improvement for small businesses[3] - Limited progress in capital expenditure or regulatory easing could constrain the profitability and valuation recovery of small businesses[3]