天富期货棕油反弹、棉花续升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading the way. Cotton continued to rise, while eggs showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the downward trend remained unchanged. Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level, and sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading. High - frequency data showed that from December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased month - on - month and production decreased, boosting the palm oil rebound, but the rebound space may be limited. Cotton continued to rise due to strong downstream demand, a decline in cumulative imported cotton this year, and improved textile export expectations due to better China - US economic and trade relations [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil rebounded from its low, with a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports (up 43.6% month - on - month from December 1 - 20, 2025 according to SGS) and a decline in production (down 7.15% month - on - month from December 1 - 20 according to SPPOMA). India's cancellation of some Argentine soybean oil imports was potentially positive, and Indonesia's B50 policy provided long - term support. The palm oil futures price rebounded from its low, but the price was still in a downward trend, and the resistance level of 8466 on the 10 - day moving average needed attention [2] 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton continued to rise. Xinjiang's new cotton was on the market, commercial inventories increased seasonally, but cotton sales rates were higher than last year, indicating strong downstream consumption. Cotton imports decreased (890,000 tons from January - November this year, a 64% year - on - year decrease). Xinjiang textile mills' product sales were smooth, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, and the startup rate was over 90%. The improvement in China - US economic and trade relations improved cotton textile export expectations. The cotton futures price continued to rise, reaching a new four - month high. The strategy was to look for support levels to go long [3] 3.2.3 Eggs - Eggs showed near - term weakness and long - term strength. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, and overall demand was weak. The old - hen slaughter volume decreased slightly, and capacity reduction was slow. The near - month contract was under pressure from sufficient supply. The main 2602 contract fluctuated narrowly and was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold short positions [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the decline remained. Domestic soybeans were sufficient, with 1 - month shipping contracts mostly purchased. Cofco's continuous soybean auctions had decreasing transaction rates and prices. High soybean imports led to high - pressure oil extraction, and soybean meal inventories remained above one million tons. The main 2605 contract rebounded slightly but was still in a downward trend, and the strategy was to look for resistance levels to go short lightly [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The domestic pig inventory was high, and farmers were more willing to sell. There was a risk of concentrated supply due to the end - of - year sales plan of large pig farms and the concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured pigs. The demand side was not strongly supported, with mild weather and late Chinese New Year affecting pickled meat demand and substitutes diverting some pork consumption. The main 2603 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the strategy was short - term trading until a breakthrough [9] 3.2.6 Sugar - Sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed. Global sugar production in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand was expected to increase (Brazil up 2.3% to 44.7 million tons, India up 25% to 35.25 million tons, Thailand up 2% to 10.25 million tons in the 2025/26 season). In China, southern sugarcane crushing continued, and the supply pressure increased seasonally. The main 2605 contract rebounded, with some short - covering, but the downward trend remained, and the strategy was to hold short positions [11]