天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Investment Ratings There is no report on industry investment ratings provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: The current main driving logic is that both the actual and expected demand are good, and the resumption time of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine is repeatedly later than expected, resulting in a generally strong upward trend in futures prices. In the context of "strong reality and strong expectations", the operation should still focus on buying on dips [1]. - Polysilicon: Currently driven by the policy side, the market trend is somewhat detached from the fundamental situation. The rapid decline after the lunch break today was due to long - position holders leaving the market, and the overall situation is still controlled by long positions. In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern [2][5]. - Industrial Silicon: The production reduction expectation of polysilicon is negative for upstream industrial silicon. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high. The situation is now controlled by long positions, and the downward driving force has weakened, so it is considered to be in a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary by Category Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The carbonate lithium futures showed a strong upward trend today. The main 2605 contract rose 2.68% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 114,380 yuan per ton [1]. - Core Logic: Affected by the notice of restricting the opening volume of positions issued by the exchange after Friday's trading session, the price opened significantly lower but then strengthened quickly. The main driving factors are good demand in reality and expectation, and the delayed resumption of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine [1]. - Technical Analysis: The carbonate lithium futures increased in positions and rose today, still controlled by long positions. There was an opportunity to enter the market with the "three - line resonance method" at 9:10 am, with a good profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract shows a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing line at 100,100 yuan per ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectations", the strategy is to buy on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [1]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures dropped after the lunch break today. The main 2605 contract fell 2.32% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 58,845 yuan per ton [2]. - Core Logic: Driven by policy factors such as the establishment of a polysilicon platform company and the small number of registered polysilicon warehouse receipts, the market trend is detached from the fundamentals. The decline after the lunch break was due to long - position holders leaving the market. The notice of increasing the minimum opening volume of positions issued by the exchange last Thursday may lead to the departure of retail investors, reducing future liquidity and increasing price volatility [2][5]. - Technical Analysis: The polysilicon futures decreased in positions and dropped today, still controlled by long positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, approaching the long - short dividing line at 58,030 yuan per ton [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [5]. - Concerns: The recovery of warehouse receipts [6]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated today. The 2605 contract fell 1.09% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,595 yuan per ton [9]. - Core Logic: The production reduction expectation of polysilicon is negative for upstream industrial silicon. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is weak, with inventory at a three - year high and the accumulation pattern continuing. With the implementation of downstream production cuts, the overall restocking is limited. Now it is controlled by long positions, and the downward driving force has weakened [9]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures increased, and it is now controlled by short positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing line at 8,300 yuan per ton [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is considered to be in a volatile state. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [9].