宏观经济专题：AI与工业化建设对出口贡献高于抢出口

Group 1: U.S. Import and Inventory Trends - From November 2024 to September 2025, U.S. imports are expected to grow by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than -5.3% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024[14] - U.S. inventory growth during the same period is projected at 1.9%, indicating no excessive accumulation of stock[17] - The discrepancy between U.S. imports and inventory levels may be attributed to statistical issues and strong AI investment driving imports[20] Group 2: Export Contributions and Trends - AI investment and industrialization in emerging regions contributed 3.6 percentage points to export growth over the past year[5] - The contribution ratio of AI and industrialization products to export growth is 2.3:1 compared to products experiencing export rush phenomena[44] - Estimated export rush amounts to approximately $42 billion for non-U.S. regions from November 2024 to August 2025[47] Group 3: Future Export Projections - Total U.S. exports are expected to grow by 2% to 4% year-on-year in 2026[50] - AI-related investments are projected to continue driving demand, but growth rates may decline due to higher base effects[58] - The forecast for 2026 exports is based on seasonal trends observed in 2023 and 2024, with adjustments for potential overdraw effects[63]