“见微知著”系列专题之九：“返乡潮”提前了吗？

Group 1: Migration Trends - Recent high levels of migration are not indicative of an early "return home tide," as current migration patterns show stable high levels rather than the typical pulse increase associated with such events, with the national migration index maintaining a high level of 15.3% year-on-year[3] - The migration indices for labor input cities like Henan Zhoukou and labor output cities like Guangdong Dongguan have remained stable, contrasting with the expected pulse increases during peak return periods[4] - The outflow intensity from major labor supply provinces is low, with December figures around 15% year-on-year, indicating that the current high migration levels are not primarily driven by a return home trend[4] Group 2: Factors Supporting High Migration - The introduction of autumn holiday policies in multiple regions, including Sichuan and Zhejiang, has significantly boosted residents' willingness to travel, with migration indices for Chengdu and Hangzhou increasing by 15.4% and 20.3% year-on-year respectively[5] - Warmer winter temperatures this year, with an average increase of 4.2°C in November compared to the past five years, have extended the window for cross-regional travel, contributing to sustained high migration levels[6] - Business travel has also increased, with domestic and international flight operations rising by approximately 2% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a recovery in urban mobility and business activity[5] Group 3: Consumption Trends - High migration levels are expected to drive growth in service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining and accommodation, as evidenced by the resilience of service retail growth compared to a decline in goods retail, which has dropped to 4.1%[7] - The shift in consumer behavior towards services is supported by macroeconomic trends, with expectations that service consumption will continue to grow as the economy transitions from goods to services[8] - The potential for service consumption growth remains significant, as current policies are increasingly favoring the service sector, including initiatives like extended holidays and consumer vouchers[8]