中原期货晨会纪要-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the global market enters the "Christmas mode", with stock markets in the US, Europe, and Hong Kong closed on Christmas Day. Key economic data from China, the US, and the UK will be released, and the selection of the Fed Chairman is highly anticipated. Gold and crude oil trends are in focus. Huawei and Leapmotor will hold product and anniversary press conferences respectively [7]. - The "zero - tariff" imported car policy in the Hainan Free Trade Port has been officially implemented, but it only applies to enterprises engaged in transportation and tourism in Hainan [7]. - The first L3 - level autonomous driving license in China was issued in Chongqing, marking that China may become the first country to scale - release L3 - level autonomous driving [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes innovation - driven development and the construction of a unified national market. The National Market Regulatory Administration has issued a compliance guide for the automotive industry's price behavior [8]. - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total trust asset scale of the Chinese trust industry exceeded 30 trillion yuan, ranking third in the asset management market [8]. - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative oil and gas equivalent production in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, setting a new record [9]. - Fed's Harker tends to keep interest rates stable before spring and opposes recent rate cuts due to inflation concerns [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Coking Coal | 1,104.00 | 1,108.00 | -4.0 | -0.361% | | Coke | 1,735.50 | 1,597.50 | 138.0 | 8.638% | | Natural Rubber | 15,170.00 | 15,190.00 | -20.0 | -0.132% | | 20 - grade Rubber | 12,330.00 | 12,360.00 | -30.0 | -0.243% | | Plastic | 6,320.00 | 6,320.00 | 0 | 0% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,208.00 | 6,213.00 | -5.0 | -0.080% | | PTA | 4,980.00 | 4,882.00 | 98.0 | 2.007% | | PVC | 4,594.00 | 4,652.00 | -58.0 | -1.247% | | Asphalt | 2,940.00 | 2,909.00 | 31.0 | 1.066% | | Methanol | 2,167.00 | 2,148.00 | 19.0 | 0.885% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,746.00 | 3,738.00 | 8.0 | 0.214% | | Styrene | 6,443.00 | 6,402.00 | 41.0 | 0.640% | | Glass | 1,039.00 | 1,041.00 | -2.0 | -0.192% | | Crude Oil | 431.90 | 426.60 | 5.30 | 1.242% | | Fuel Oil | 2,415.00 | 2,390.00 | 25.0 | 1.046% | | Soda Ash | 1,174.00 | 1,176.00 | -2.0 | -0.170% | | Pulp | 5,610.00 | 5,506.00 | 104.0 | 1.889% | | LPG | 4,092.00 | 4,099.00 | -7.0 | -0.171% | | Caustic Soda | 2,164.00 | 2,164.00 | 0 | 0% | | ЬХ | 7,222.00 | 7,070.00 | 152.0 | 2.150% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,090.00 | 4,052.00 | 38.0 | 0.938% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,674.00 | 3,676.00 | -2.0 | -0.054% | | Bean Meal | 2,738.00 | 2,735.00 | 3.0 | 0.110% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,322.00 | 2,323.00 | -1.0 | -0.043% | | Egg | 7,718.00 | 7,712.00 | 6.0 | 0.078% | | Rapeseed Oil | 8,717.00 | 8,744.00 | -27.0 | -0.309% | | Palm Oil | 8,276.00 | 8,292.00 | -16.0 | -0.193% | | White Sugar | 5,109.00 | 5,088.00 | 21.0 | 0.413% | | Yellow Corn | 2,200.00 | 2,192.00 | 8.0 | 0.365% | | Corn Starch | 2,502.00 | 2,502.00 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton No.1 | 14,050.00 | 14,015.00 | 35.0 | 0.250% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,150.00 | 20,050.00 | 100.0 | 0.499% | [4] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On December 19, the sugar futures closed at 5088 yuan/ton, showing a weak trend. Supply pressure is the core driver. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, paying attention to the price around the cost line. Resistance is at 5100 - 5110 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: On December 19, the corn futures closed at 2192 yuan/ton, with prices oscillating at the bottom. Supply pressure is emerging, while demand is divided. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the support at 2180 yuan/ton and the resistance at 2200 yuan/ton [11]. - Pigs: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures market is in a weak - reality and improving - expectation situation. There are weak rebound opportunities, and it is advisable to use the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. - Eggs: The spot price in Hebei was stable with a slight decline. The market is bearish, and it is recommended to hold the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage [12]. - Cotton: On December 19, the cotton futures closed at 14015 yuan/ton, showing a strong - oscillating trend. Supply pressure is short - term, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to build long positions at dips near the new support level of 13900 - 13950 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The spot market price is stable. Supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and demand support from compound fertilizer enterprises has weakened. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton [13]. - Caustic Soda: The short - term supply - demand pattern is stable, and the price is in a weak - stable adjustment. There is a short - term short - covering rebound [13]. - Coking Coal: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and supply is relatively loose. Steel mills' maintenance has weakened the replenishment demand for coking coal and coke, which are expected to be in a weak - oscillating state [13]. - Log: The futures price is in a weak state. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions at high prices [14]. - Pulp: The market presents a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The price is high, and there is a risk of a high - level correction. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [14]. - Double - offset Paper: The price is in a weak - oscillating state. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions at high prices near 3980 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro risks [15]. - Alumina: The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and there is a short - term short - covering rebound [15]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamental pressure is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [15]. - Ferroalloys: The supply - demand drive for ferroalloys at the end of the year is weak. Prices follow the trend of the black - series market, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price has broken through the 110,000 - yuan mark. Supply may increase, but demand from the energy - storage sector is strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: On December 19, the three major A - share indices rose. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility [20]. - Stock Index: On December 19, the three major indices closed higher. It is expected that the index will oscillate in a range at the end of the year. It is advisable to buy on dips and take profits on rallies, keeping a flexible position [22][23].