Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1走势回顾 - Futures Price: Last week, the egg futures market was weak, and the main contract was switched to 2602. As of last Friday's close, the main egg JD2602 contract was reported at 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.03%; the egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.26% [5][14]. - Spot Price: Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.11 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.97% [7][18]. - Chick Price: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in the country was 2.71 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10% [22]. - Old Hen Price: Last week, the old hen price increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.49% [26]. 3.2基本面分析 - Supply Side - Laying Hen Inventory: In November, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month. As of the end of November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in December will still decline slightly [30]. - Production Area Shipment: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased month - on - month. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6,357.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.08% [36]. - Old Hen Slaughter: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 661,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08%; the average slaughter age was 488 days, with a maximum of 500 days and a minimum of 475 days [40]. - Demand Side - Sales in Sales Areas: Last week, the egg sales in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales in the representative markets in the sales areas were 6,432.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - Arrival in Sales Areas: Last week, the arrival in the Beijing market was 81 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 11 trucks; the arrival in the Guangdong market was 513 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 7 trucks [47]. - Old Hen Slaughter Volume: Last week, the old hen slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. The old hen slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 1.9585 million, a decrease of 124,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% [53]. - Inventory Situation: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.95 days, the same as the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous Friday [57]. - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit: Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 6.25%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan per ton; the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,122 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 39 yuan per ton [61]. - Related Products Situation - White - Feathered Broiler: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.39 yuan per chick, up 0.06 yuan per chick from the previous week; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.63 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [65]. - 817 Small White Chicken: The national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.89 yuan per catty, up 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [70]. 3.3后市展望 - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3.4操作策略 - Single - Side: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously pay attention to the old hen elimination rhythm. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: None [9][72].
节前备货初启难抵弱现实，短期延续低位震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-12-22 02:26