申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251222

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly, with stable spot prices for linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina. The overall downstream demand side's overall operating rate seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. The previous price movement was influenced by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and future domestic consumption potential [2]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6272, 6320, and 6367 respectively, down - 161, - 156, and - 147 from the day before, with percentage drops of - 2.50%, - 2.41%, and - 2.26% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6132, 6213, and 6240 respectively, down - 70, - 66, and - 63 from the day before, with percentage drops of - 1.13%, - 1.05%, and - 1.00% respectively [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 66179, 721995, and 14047 respectively, and the open interests were 89235, 598214, and 18283 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 16247, 36438, and 4333 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 51796, 375015, and 6257 respectively, and the open interests were 124668, 533959, and 30093 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 17966, 10464, and 397 respectively [2]. - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 48, - 47, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 43, - 38, and 81. For PP, the current spreads are - 81, - 27, and 108 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 24, and 101 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2150 yuan/ton, 5915 yuan/ton, 576 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged from the previous day [2]. - Mid - stream: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6350 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, with some price ranges unchanged from the previous day [2]. News - On Friday (December 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.66 per barrel, up $0.51 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.82 - $56.90. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $60.47 per barrel, up $0.65 or 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.40 - $60.65 [2].