铝周报：沪铝或高位震荡运行-20251222

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts. [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2602 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 21,600 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 22,200 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. From January to November, it increased by 6.0% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 30 had year - on - year growth in added value in November. The US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI also significantly missed expectations, rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. [4][10][11] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In November 2025, there was an alumina supply surplus of 590,000 tons. As of November 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. As of December 11, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period. [13] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 19, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,510 tons, an increase of 515 tons from the previous week. As of December 18, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, with the cancelled warrant ratio at 14.2%. As of December 18, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 510,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous day. [21]