棉花：期价震荡偏强，现货交投偏淡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot trading is light. The ICE cotton futures in the US are still in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic cotton textile industry has weak performance with low demand and production adjustment [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,015 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 14,050 yuan/ton with a 0.25% increase. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,050 yuan/ton with a 0.02% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 20,150 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 63.65 cents/pound with a 0.13% increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 404,529 lots, an increase of 148,078 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 1,116,467 lots, an increase of 3,034 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 7,936 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 22,821 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,870, an increase of 251, and the effective forecast was 3,852, a decrease of 97. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 9, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 9 [1]. - Spot Data: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,846 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.34% compared to the previous day. The price of Nanjang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.34%. The price in Shandong was 15,184 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.04%. The price in Hebei was 15,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.13%. The 3128B index was 15,145 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.04%. The international cotton index M was 71.79 cents/pound, an increase of 0.09 cents or 0.13%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.24%, and the arrival price was 21,138 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan or 0.37% [1]. - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [1]. [Macroeconomic and Industry News] - Domestic Cotton Spot: The cotton spot trading was cold, and the point - price trading continued to decline. Spinning mills had weak purchasing意愿. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked cotton of 31 - 41 grade, double 29, and impurity within 3 were mostly between 14,900 - 15,100 (public weight), and a small amount was lower than 14,900, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis for 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was CF01/05 + 950 - 1050, and a small amount was lower than this price, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable, but the overall sales were weak. Although supported by cotton cost, most spinning mills had few orders, with large negotiation space in actual transactions. Inland spinning mills generally had poor profits and continuously reduced their operating rates. Some spinning mills in Xinjiang reported a significant decline in recent orders compared to the previous period, but had no inventory pressure and still maintained a high operating rate [2]. - US Cotton Situation: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, with intraday fluctuations and still in a low - level oscillation [3]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6].