风物宜放长量，铜牛踏步徐行：沪铜周报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Copper is expected to consolidate in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions in copper, set trailing stop - profits, and consider adding positions after a full correction. In the long - term, the outlook for copper remains positive. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [89,500, 96,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11,400, 12,200] US dollars/ton [6][7][106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 View Abstract - Copper is in short - term shock consolidation. After reaching a record high, some long - holders are taking profits. Technically, the Shanghai copper main contract 2602 has resistance at the previous high of 94,680 and support at the 90,000 mark and the gap of 89,280 - 90,008. The daily MACD shows a potential dead - cross, and the weekly line closes as a doji, but the price is still above the 5 - day moving average. Long positions should be held, and trailing stop - profits should be set. After a full correction, it is a good opportunity to build positions. In the long - term, copper is still favored due to its strategic importance in the Sino - US game and the increasing demand in the green copper sector [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Economic Data - US non - farm data is weak. In November, non - farm employment increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The employment structure has deteriorated, with a significant loss of full - time jobs. The US inflation in November was lower than expected, with the core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest since early 2021. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January has increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, and the market expects a 62 - basis - point easing next year [11]. 3.2.2 Japanese Economic Data - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19, 2025, increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years [11]. 3.2.3 Chinese Economic Data - In November, China's social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, higher than the market average expectation. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%. China's foreign trade showed a recovery, with the total import and export value increasing by 4.1%. The real estate market remained weak, with a decline in various indicators such as construction area, new - start area, and completion area. The government emphasized a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with a possible high fiscal deficit rate of 4% in 2026 and an expansion of special bond issuance [14]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Copper Ore Supply: In 2025, many large - scale copper mines around the world had unexpected production cuts or shutdowns. Global copper ore supply is tight, and copper ore giants are accelerating mergers and acquisitions. The import of copper concentrate in November was 2.526 million tons, with a cumulative import of 27.614 million tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level [46]. - Electrolytic Copper Production: In November, the domestic copper smelting start - up rate was 82.29%, and the electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The International Copper Study Group expects a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in the global refined copper market in 2026 [48]. - Import: The import of refined copper in October was 323,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. From January to November, the cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [48]. - Scrap Copper: The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded to a medium - high level. In October, the import of copper scrap and waste was 196,600 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81%, and the cumulative import from January to October was 1.8955 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97% [48]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - Green Copper Demand: The average copper consumption in renewable energy systems is 8 - 12 times higher than that in traditional power generation systems. The copper consumption per megawatt in the photovoltaic field is about 4 tons, and the copper consumption per GW of photovoltaic installation is about 0.5 tons. The copper consumption of pure electric vehicles and buses is much higher than that of fuel - powered vehicles [85]. - Automobile Demand: At the beginning of December 2025, the automobile market was weak. From December 1 - 7, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year - on - year and 8% month - on - month, and the wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year and 18% month - on - month [85]. - Power Demand: The domestic power grid bidding work is actively carried out at the end of the year. From January to October, the investment in power grid projects increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the investment in power source projects increased by 0.7% year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installation in China from January to October was 252.87 GW [85]. - Home Appliance Demand: Some air - conditioning enterprises are considering "aluminum replacing copper" due to the high copper price. In November, the retail volume of the home appliance new - retail market increased by 6.2%, but the retail sales decreased by 3.6%. The online channel also showed a decline in both volume and sales [85]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In the short - term, the macro environment is mixed, and copper prices are consolidating in a high - level range. The fundamental factors provide strong support for the price. It is recommended to hold long positions, set trailing stop - profits, and add positions after a correction. In the long - term, copper is still favored due to its strategic importance and the increasing demand in the green copper sector. For industrial hedging, sellers should reduce the hedging ratio and sell inventory, while buyers should build positions on dips to lock in raw material costs [106].