Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Continue to Weaken" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The cold repair expectation of 3,600 tons of glass production capacity in mid - to late December has basically failed, strengthening the fundamental pressure of stable supply at the end of the year. With the lack of year - end demand, large capital repayment pressure, and the lack of macro - positive expectations in the real estate sector, the glass futures market is likely to operate weakly at a low level before the Spring Festival, and the near - month contracts will continue to weaken [2] Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - The main logic is based on the market situation, including price fluctuations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The market's cold repair expectation has failed, and the end - of - year supply is stable while demand is lacking. Technically, the short - side force is increasing, so the glass near - month contracts are expected to continue to weaken [2] - The operation strategy is to expect the glass market to continue to weaken [2][3] 2. Spot Price Review - As of December 19, the 5mm float glass market prices in North China were 1,030 yuan/ton (- 10), in Central China 1,080 yuan/ton (0), and in East China 1,190 yuan/ton (- 10). The weekly changes of 5mm float glass prices for some manufacturers (such as Shahe Anquan, Shahe Great Wall, etc.) showed a downward trend, with a maximum decrease of 20 yuan/ton [8][9] - The glass 01 contract closed at 941 yuan/ton last Friday, up 6 for the week [9] 3. Spread Review - As of December 19, the difference between the soda ash futures price (1,176 yuan) and the glass futures price (1041 yuan) was 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to before [10] - Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [14] 4. Profit Situation - For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1,573 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1,163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 7 yuan/ton (0 change) [18] 5. Supply Situation - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 155,105 tons/day (0 change), and there were currently 219 production lines in operation. There were some production line changes in the past, including cold repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [20][22] 6. Inventory Situation - As of December 19, the national inventory of 80 glass samples was on the rise (+ 33.1). Specifically, the inventory in North China was 1,045 million weight boxes (+ 40.8), in Central China 685 million weight boxes (+ 1.5), in East China 1,209.3 million weight boxes (- 2.1), in South China 797.3 million weight boxes (- 16.7), in Southwest China 1,197.2 million weight boxes (- 2.5), and the Shahe factory inventory was 350 million weight boxes (32). The Hubei factory inventory was 475 million weight boxes (+ 14) [24][27][30] 7. Production - Sales and Deep - Processing Situation - On December 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 89%, a decrease of 6%. On December 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.3%, a decrease of 1%. In mid - December, the available days of glass deep - processing orders were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [31] 8. Demand from the Automotive Sector - In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in November were 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [42] 9. Demand from the Real Estate Sector - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (- 28%); construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (- 42%); and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (- 18%). From December 8 to December 14, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.12 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 13% and a year - on - year decrease of 35%. In November, the real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [47] 10. Soda Ash Cost - End: Basis Strengthening - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1,325 yuan/ton in North China (0 change), 1,250 yuan/ton in East China (0 change), 1,300 yuan/ton in Central China (0 change), and 1,450 yuan/ton in South China (0 change). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton (+ 83). The basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [49][51][53] 11. Soda Ash Cost - End: Cost Decrease - As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the co - production process cost was 1,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The overall soda ash profit was - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (0 change) [55][56][57] 12. Soda Ash Cost - End: Inventory Recovery - Last week, domestic soda ash production was 721,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons, including 390,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons) and 331,100 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons). The loss amount was 150,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons. The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 4,532 pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 1,231 pieces. As of December 19, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons [65][66][68] 13. Soda Ash Cost - End: Apparent Demand Decline - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,300 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.71%. The inventory days of soda ash were 24.1 days [74][80]
玻璃：冷修预期落空近月继续走弱
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-22 02:22