合成橡胶：逐渐步入震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the overall upward trend of butadiene rubber has slowed down and gradually entered a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise of butadiene rubber was mainly due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. However, this week, due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamental data of butadiene and butadiene rubber, coupled with the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened and prices have corrected. Butadiene currently presents a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, and the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral. The visible inventory of butadiene rubber has increased this week, and its fundamentals have weakened. Overall, the processing profit of butadiene rubber may be compressed, and the futures price has corrected under the high - premium pattern. But due to the strong expectations of butadiene still bringing some speculative nature, it has entered a volatile pattern in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (02 contract), the daily closing price was 11,020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 127,276 lots (down 158 lots), the open interest was 101,995 lots (up 619 lots), and the trading value was 703,480 ten - thousand yuan (down 2,972 ten - thousand yuan) [1] Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 170 (down 80 from the previous day), and the monthly spread of BR01 - BR05 was - 80 (up 45 from the previous day) [1] Spot Market - For butadiene rubber prices, the prices of North China, East China, South China (private) and Shandong market (delivery product) decreased by 0 - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. For styrene - butadiene rubber prices, the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) remained unchanged. For butadiene prices, the mainstream prices in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 76.7608%, the theoretical full cost was 10,534 yuan/ton, and the profit was 366 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] 2. Industry News - As of December 17, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises with cargo rights also increased [2] - As of December 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 36,000 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Although the inventory change was not significant this period, there were still some trade inventories and the expectation of ocean - going vessel arrivals, so attention should be paid to the phased inventory changes [2][3]