Anhui Xinbo Aluminum (SZ:003038) Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-12-22 03:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for photovoltaic frames and lightweight automotive products, driven by the growth in global photovoltaic installations and the high growth rate of new energy vehicle production [7] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity and entering new markets such as robotics, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [7] - The report highlights that the company’s earnings are expected to improve significantly by 2027, with a projected PE ratio lower than the average of comparable companies [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 6,821 million - 2024: 8,572 million - 2025: 8,532 million - 2026: 10,654 million - 2027: 13,196 million - The expected growth rates for total revenue are 61.6% for 2023, 25.7% for 2024, -0.5% for 2025, 24.9% for 2026, and 23.9% for 2027 [5][31] - The projected net profit for the company is as follows: - 2023: 302 million - 2024: 168 million - 2025: 14 million - 2026: 200 million - 2027: 308 million - The expected growth rates for net profit are 60.8% for 2023, -44.3% for 2024, -91.8% for 2025, 1346.0% for 2026, and 50.7% for 2027 [5][31] Industry and Company Situation - The company focuses on new energy photovoltaic (photovoltaic frames) and automotive lightweight (aluminum profiles) businesses, with a strong market share in the photovoltaic frame industry [7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing global photovoltaic installation capacity, which is expected to drive demand for photovoltaic frames [7] - The domestic new energy vehicle production is projected to maintain a high growth rate, which will increase the demand for aluminum profiles used in automotive lightweighting [7] - The acquisition of Wuhu Bida is expected to deepen cooperation with Chery Automobile, potentially boosting the company's performance [7] Key Assumptions - For new energy photovoltaic products, revenue growth is expected to be -5% in 2025, 16% in 2026, and 14% in 2027, with gross margins of 5.0%, 5.7%, and 5.5% respectively [7] - For automotive lightweight products, revenue growth is projected at 55% in 2025, 120% in 2026, and 80% in 2027, with gross margins of 13.5%, 15.5%, and 16% respectively [7]