国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251222

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [2]. - It also includes market news, industry data, and macro - news that may impact the futures market. Summaries by Commodity 1. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. It is recommended to focus on long PX and short PF/PR positions and maintain positive spread operations [8]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads, and long PTA and short PF/PR [8]. - MEG: Unilateral is in a sideways market, and the medium - term trend is still weak [9]. 2. Rubber - The rubber market is in a wide - range sideways pattern. Domestic production areas are stopping production faster, overseas raw material prices are high, but tire production capacity utilization is weak and inventory is increasing [10][11][13]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - It is gradually entering a sideways pattern. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber have weakened, with processing profits likely to be compressed [15][17]. 4. Asphalt - It is in a low - level sideways pattern, and geopolitical factors should be monitored. Refinery inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased slightly [18][28]. 5. LLDPE - Full - density production has partially shifted, and valuation support is limited. The market is weak, with marginal demand weakening and high inventory pressure in the medium term [29][30]. 6. PP - PDH profits have improved month - on - month, and the trend is weakly sideways. Cost support is limited, supply - demand competition is intensifying, and demand is weak [31][32]. 7. Caustic Soda - There is still pressure in the later period. It is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, with weak demand and high supply pressure [34][36]. 8. Pulp - The trend is slightly strong. The import pulp market price is stable, the port inventory is decreasing, and the cost of living paper is strongly supported, with prices expected to be sideways [39][44][45]. 9. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price is generally stable, with weak downstream orders and some areas in the payment collection stage [49][50]. 10. Methanol - It is sideways with support. The port inventory is decreasing, but the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a cost support at the bottom [51][54][55]. 11. Urea - It is in a sideways operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, the demand - side drive is neutral, and there is support at the bottom for the 05 contract [57][59]. 12. Styrene - It is in a short - term sideways pattern. Pure benzene is expected to have a wide - range sideways pattern with a low - to - high center of gravity in 2026, and styrene processing fees are expected to remain at a high level [60][61]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with weak demand from downstream enterprises and short - term price weakness [65][66]. 14. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term trend is weak. - Propylene: There is support in the short - term due to the expectation of supply reduction and demand increase [68][72]. 15. PVC - The trend is weak. It is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, with limited rebound space and high pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [76][77]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It is mainly in a sideways pattern with support at the bottom. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session is strong, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [79]. 17. Freight Index (European Line) - For the 02 contract, pay attention to delivery opportunities; for the 04 contract, maintain rolling short - selling; for far - month contracts, pay attention to the progress of the Gaza peace talks [81]. 18. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - Fiber: It follows the rise of raw materials in the short - term, and the processing fee is compressed. - Bottle Chip: It follows the rise of raw materials in the short - term [97][98]. 19. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is stable, the cost is high, the demand is weak, and the industry is in a weak balance [100][101][103]. 20. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term sideways pattern. In 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - range sideways pattern with a low - to - high center of gravity, and the current inventory is high [104][105].