金融期货早评-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone. The US job market is cooling, and CPI data is suspected of being distorted. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, causing the global bond market to decline. Domestically, fiscal and monetary policies remain positive, but domestic demand is weak and needs policy support [2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may "break 7" and depreciate moderately in 2026, supported by factors such as narrowing monetary policy differentials, strengthening domestic economic fundamentals, and inflows of international capital [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be volatile; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver prices are strong. In the short - term, silver should be cautiously chased due to rising price risks. In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's rate - cut rhythm, dollar index, and demand for gold by central banks should be considered [11][12]. - Copper prices may break through or return to a volatile pattern. Buying on dips is recommended [15]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - Zinc is expected to have a high - level wide - range shock in the short - term [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the market is affected by various factors. Tin prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [18][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a short - term correction but are expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance in the long - term. Buying on dips is recommended [21]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron ore prices are range - bound, with upper pressure from high supply and lower support from steel mill profits and expected iron - water recovery [26][27]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - Crude oil prices may rise due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela [34]. - LPG is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [38][39]. - MEG prices are under pressure from supply and demand and cost, and the upside is limited [41]. - Methanol is in a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - PP may have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [45]. - PE is affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [47]. - Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [50][51]. - Rubber is expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - Log prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - Propylene is expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - Oilseeds have a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - Oils are running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - Cotton prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - Sugar prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - Egg prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - Apple prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - Red date prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the State Council meeting, TikTok news, price rules, Hainan's customs - closure, Trump's policies, Fed news, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and international negotiations [1]. - The core logic is the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and the domestic economic policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose. Important news includes the US Treasury Secretary's statement and Trump's pharmaceutical agreement. The 2026 exchange rate is expected to be volatile and depreciate moderately [3][4]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index rose, but the trading volume was low. The short - term is expected to be volatile [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous week's bond market rebounded. The market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFI European line slightly declined, and futures prices were volatile at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [7][8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Prices are strong. In the short - term, silver price risks are rising; in the long - term, multiple factors need to be considered [11][12]. - Copper: Prices may break through or be volatile. Buying on dips is recommended [13][15]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - Zinc: Short - term high - level wide - range shock [17]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Prices have rebounded, affected by various factors [18]. - Tin: Prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: May have a short - term correction, but long - term supply - demand is tight. Buying on dips is recommended [20][21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - Lead: Expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices are volatile, affected by cost support and demand weakness [25][26]. - Iron Ore: Prices are range - bound, with supply pressure on the upside and demand support on the downside [26][27]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Affected by supply, demand, and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: Volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - Crude Oil: Prices may rise due to the tense US - Venezuela situation [34]. - LPG: Supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - PTA - PX: In a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [36][38]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Prices are under pressure from supply, demand, and cost, and the upside is limited [40][41]. - Methanol: In a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - PP: May have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [44][45]. - PE: Affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [46][47]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [49][51]. - Rubber: Expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - Urea: Expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - Soda Ash & Caustic Soda: Volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - Log: Prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - Propylene: Expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - Hog: May be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - Oilseeds: Near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - Oils: Running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - Cotton: Prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - Sugar: Prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - Egg: Prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - Apple: Prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - Red Date: Prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70].